US PCE Prices Seen Rising, Core Monthly Inflation Steady

2026-04-09 07:21 By Joana Taborda 1 min. read

The US PCE price index is expected to rise by 0.4% month over month in February 2026, slightly above January’s 0.3% increase.

The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, is also projected to grow by 0.4%, matching the previous month’s pace.

On a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation is likely to remain steady at 2.8%, while the core rate is expected to ease slightly to 3% from 3.1%.

Overall, the report is anticipated to indicate that price pressures remained elevated, broadly in line with recent months and still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in February, prior to the onset of the war with Iran.

The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.



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US PCE Prices Seen Rising, Core Monthly Inflation Steady
The US PCE price index is expected to rise by 0.4% month over month in February 2026, slightly above January’s 0.3% increase. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, is also projected to grow by 0.4%, matching the previous month’s pace. On a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation is likely to remain steady at 2.8%, while the core rate is expected to ease slightly to 3% from 3.1%. Overall, the report is anticipated to indicate that price pressures remained elevated, broadly in line with recent months and still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in February, prior to the onset of the war with Iran. The PCE price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.
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