NY Fed Services Index Reflects Further Deterioration

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's general business activity index, which tracks economic activity in New York State as well as parts of New Jersey and Connecticut, inched up to -22.6 in March of 2026 from the five-year low of -25.7 in the previous month. Despite the slight improvement in the rate of deterioration, the reading still reflected one of the sharpest declines in activity since the US economy started to recover from the Covid shock 5 years prior. The business climate index dropped by 4.5 points from the earlier month to -46.2 and the prices charged dropped by 1.1 points 28.8. In turn, the index measuring employment improved by 1.2 points to -8.5. Looking ahead, the business activity expectations index dropped by 4.8 points to 12.7.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general business activity index, which tracks economic activity in New York State as well as parts of New Jersey and Connecticut, fell to -25.7 in February 2026, down from -16.1 in January. This represented the sharpest deterioration since early 2021 and signaled a sharp contraction in the region’s service sector. The business climate index remained deeply negative at -41.7, indicating that conditions are worse than normal. Employment declined for the sixth consecutive month, while wage growth continued to pick up. Supply availability worsened modestly. Both input cost and selling price increases were little changed and remained elevated. Looking ahead, firms became more optimistic and anticipate a modest pickup in activity over the next six months.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general business activity index, which tracks economic activity in New York State as well as parts of New Jersey and Connecticut, rose to -16.1 in January 2026, up from -20.0 in December. This marked the highest level since August, though the reading still signaled a sharp contraction in the region’s service sector. The business climate index remained deeply negative at -34.4, indicating that conditions are worse than normal. Employment declined for the fifth consecutive month, while wage growth increased modestly. Supply availability showed little change. Both input cost and selling price increases slowed. Looking ahead, firms anticipate only modest improvements in conditions over the next six months.