NY State Business Activity Shrinks Less Than Expected

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to 5.7 in June 2026, down from 19.6 in the previous month and well below market expectations of 14, indicating a notable slowdown in regional manufacturing activity, according to firms surveyed in the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Despite the weaker headline reading, several underlying indicators showed continued expansion. New orders and shipments both rose, while unfilled orders also increased. However, supply chain pressures persisted, with delivery times lengthening and supply availability continuing to deteriorate. Labor market conditions remained firm, with employment expanding for a fifth consecutive month and the average workweek also increasing. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures remained elevated, as both input and selling price increases stayed strong. Looking ahead, firms maintained a broadly optimistic outlook for business conditions over the coming months, despite near-term moderation in activity.

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index in the US unexpectedly increased to 19.6 in May 2026 from 11 in April, above forecasts of 7.5. The reading showed that New York State manufacturing activity grew at its fastest pace in over four years. New orders (22.7 vs 19.3) and shipments (18.9 vs 20.2) increased considerably for the second consecutive month and unfilled orders rose (4.9 vs 9.1). Also, employment levels (8.3 vs 9.8) and the average workweek (11.5 vs 13.7) both continued to increase. Meanwhile, delivery times lengthened substantially (20.4 vs 12.1), and supply availability worsened somewhat (-10.7 vs -10.1). The pace of input price increases (62.6 vs 51) and selling price increases (31.8 vs 21.8) picked up sharply. Looking ahead, firms grew more optimistic about the outlook (33.5 vs 19.6). Employment is expected to grow while capital spending plans remained modest. Prices are expected to continue to rise, and supply availability is expected to worsen.

The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index in the US jumped to 11 in April 2026, the highest in five months, compared to -0.2 in March sand beating forecasts of -0.5. The reading showed that manufacturing activity grew moderately in New York State, with 36% of firms reporting an increase in activity and 25% reporting a decrease. New orders (19.3 vs 6.4) and shipments (20.2 vs -6.9) increased significantly, and employment expanded (9.8 vs 5.8). However, input price increases accelerated (51 vs 36.6), supply availability is expected to worsen (-10.1 vs -3.9), and firms became less optimistic about the outlook (19.6 vs 31).