NY State Business Activity Shrinks Less Than Expected

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to 20.6 in August 2026 from 15.6 in July and largely beating market forecasts of 11. The data showed that New York State manufacturing activity expanded for a second consecutive month and at its fastest pace since late 2021. New orders and shipments continued to grow solidly, with their indexes at 17.3 and 11.7, respectively. The unfilled orders index rose eleven points to 15.5 and the delivery times index rose eight points to 20.6, indicating significantly longer delivery times. Inventories declined, and the supply availability index fell to -13.4, pointing to worsening supply conditions. Employment and hours worked increased modestly, while input price pressures picked up and selling price growth eased but remained elevated. The outlook remained positive, with firms expecting stronger orders, shipments and employment, despite persistent supply and price pressures. Capital spending plans remained modest.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped 10 points to 15.6 in July 2026, signaling a significant pickup in business activity across New York State. New orders and shipments saw strong growth, while unfilled orders rose and delivery times lengthened further. Supply availability continued to deteriorate. Employment increased at a solid pace, and the average workweek edged higher. Input and selling price increases remained elevated but slowed slightly. Firms maintained an optimistic outlook for the coming months.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to 5.7 in June 2026, down from 19.6 in the previous month and well below market expectations of 14, indicating a notable slowdown in regional manufacturing activity, according to firms surveyed in the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Despite the weaker headline reading, several underlying indicators showed continued expansion. New orders and shipments both rose, while unfilled orders also increased. However, supply chain pressures persisted, with delivery times lengthening and supply availability continuing to deteriorate. Labor market conditions remained firm, with employment expanding for a fifth consecutive month and the average workweek also increasing. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures remained elevated, as both input and selling price increases stayed strong. Looking ahead, firms maintained a broadly optimistic outlook for business conditions over the coming months, despite near-term moderation in activity.