US Job Growth Seen Cooling

2025-06-06 06:29 By Joana Ferreira 1 min. read

US nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 130,000 in May 2025, marking the smallest gain in three months and a slowdown from April’s 177,000.

The moderation in hiring comes amid elevated uncertainty surrounding tariff policy, which may be dampening job growth—though widespread layoffs are not expected at this stage.

By sector, employment in trade and transportation likely stalled, following prior front-loading of hiring in anticipation of trade disruptions.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.2%, while annual wage growth is expected to have edged down slightly to 3.7%.

A modest downside surprise is unlikely to shift the Federal Reserve’s current policy stance, as policymakers navigate ongoing trade-related uncertainty and continued pressure from President Trump for lower interest rates.



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