US Small Business Optimism Falls in January

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US fell to 99.3 in January 2026 from 99.5 in December 2025, compared to forecasts of 99.9. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, three increased and seven decreased. Expected real sales volume was the only component with substantial change, increasing by 6 points to a net 16%. In addition, 16% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down 3 points from December. Also, 13% reported the cost or availability of insurance as their single most important problem, up 4 points. The last time insurance reached this percentage was December 2018. 60% reported capital outlays in the last six months, up 4 points from December and the highest level since November 2023. "While GDP is rising, small businesses are still waiting for noticeable economic growth. Despite this, more owners are reporting better business health and anticipating higher sales", according to NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose for a second consecutive month, reaching 99.5 in December 2025, its highest level since August and in line with market expectations. The index remains above its 52-year average of 98, supported primarily by a rise in owners expecting better business conditions, which jumped 9 points to a net 24%. Reports of positive profit trends also improved slightly, rising 3 points from November to a net negative 20%. When evaluating the overall health of their businesses, 9% of owners rated it excellent (down 2 points), 54% rated it good (up 1 point), 34% rated it fair (up 4 points), and 3% rated it poor (down 2 points). However, plans for hiring, capital outlays, and expectations for higher real sales all declined. Taxes were cited as the most important problem by 20% of small business owners, up 6 points from November and the highest reading since May 2021. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index fell 7 points to 84, marking its lowest level since June 2024.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US rose to 99 in November 2025, the highest in 3 months, compared to 98.2 in October, and beating forecasts of 98.4. The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose 9 points to a net 15%. Meanwhile, 21% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down 6 points from the previous month. When asked to evaluate the overall health of their business, 11% reported it as excellent (down 1 point), and 53% as good (up 2 points). Meanwhile, the net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose 13 points to a net 34%, the highest reading since March 2023. On the other hand, the net percent of owners expecting better business conditions fell 5 points to 15%. “Although optimism increased, small business owners are still frustrated by the lack of qualified workers. Despite this, more firms still plan to create new jobs in the near future”, according to NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg