US Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations at Fresh 1981-Highs

Year-ahead inflation expectations in the US, measured by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, climbed to 4.6% in September 2026 from 4% in August, marking the highest reading since June, according to a preliminary estimate. In the meantime, the five-year inflation outlook in the United States, inched up to 3.4% in September 2026, the highest since May, from 3.3% in each of the previous three months.

Year-ahead inflation expectations in the US, measured by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, were revised slightly down to 4% in August 2026 from the preliminary estimate of 4.3% and below July's 4.2%. The reading marked a third straight monthly decline and the lowest level since March. Longer-run inflation expectations, measured over a five-year horizon, held at 3.3% for a third consecutive month, in line with the earlier estimates.

Year-ahead inflation expectations in the US, measured by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, inched higher to 4.3% in August of 2026 from 4.2% in the previous month, according to a preliminary estimate. The result was mostly owed to the impact of higher energy prices as the war in Iran limited oil and fuel supply from the Middle East. Longer-run inflation expectations, measured by expectations of inflation in a five-year outlook, were at 3.3% for the third month.