US Manufacturing Output Stalls in September

Manufacturing output in the United States increased 0.2% month-over-month in December 2025, beating market expectations for a 0.2% drop. The durable manufacturing index edged up 0.1% with large contributions from growth in the output of primary metals (2.4 percent); electrical equipment, appliances, and components (1.7%); as well as aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment (1.5%). Wood products, nonmetallic mineral products, and motor vehicles and parts all posted declines of at least 1%. The nondurable manufacturing index increased 0.3%, with increases for food, beverage, and tobacco products, petroleum and coal products, and plastics and rubber products offsetting decreases in the other nondurable manufacturing indexes. Capacity utilization for manufacturing was unchanged in December at 75.6 percent, a rate that is 2.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.

Manufacturing output in the United States was flat in November 2025 after dropping 0.4% in October. The index for durables dropped 0.5% in October and then ticked down 0.1% in November. During October and November output declined in most industry groups within durables, including a drop in motor vehicles and parts of 5.1% in October and 1% in November. Notable exceptions include the index for aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment, which rose 3.2% across the two months, and the index for computer and electronic products, which gained 2.3%. The index for nondurables decreased 0.2% in October but ticked up 0.1% in November with mixed results among industry groups within nondurables. Among the largest nondurable goods industry groups by weight, in October and November, the index for food, beverages, and tobacco products rose 1.5%, while the index for chemicals declined 1.5%. Capacity utilization for manufacturing was 75.4% in November, unchanged from October.

US manufacturing production was unchanged in September 2025 compared with August, following a downwardly revised 0.1% increase in the prior month and falling short of expectations for a 0.1% rise. Within the sector, durable goods output edged up 0.1%, driven by solid gains in aerospace and miscellaneous transportation equipment (+1.4%), fabricated metal products (+1.2%), and computer and electronic products (+0.7%). These increases were offset by notable declines in motor vehicles and parts (-2.2%) and a slight drop in machinery (-0.1%). Nondurable goods production dipped 0.1%, weighed down by a 0.2% decrease in chemical output, while food, beverage, and tobacco products were unchanged.