US Inflation Rate Seen Rising for 2nd Month Amid War Jitters

The annual inflation rate in the US likely accelerated to 3.7% in April 2026, marking the highest reading since September 2023, up from 3.3% in March. Inflation is expected to have risen for a second consecutive month as the oil shock triggered by the war with Iran continued to push prices higher. On a monthly basis, consumer prices are estimated to have increased by 0.6%, easing from the 0.9% rise recorded in March, which was the largest monthly gain since June 2022. The surge in inflation comes as the US national average gasoline price climbed nearly 50% since the war with Iran started, rising above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years. Meanwhile, core inflation is also expected to have edged higher, albeit at a more moderate pace, to 2.7% year-on-year, the highest level in six months, from 2.6% in March. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices likely increased by 0.3%, up from 0.2% in both February and March.

The annual inflation rate in the US jumped to 3.3% in March 2026, marking the highest level since May 2024 and a sharp increase from 2.4% in both February and January. Figures came in line with forecasts, with the rise primarily driven by higher energy costs (12.5%), mostly gasoline (up 18.9%) and fuel oil (44.2%), due to the war with Iran. On the other hand, prices for used cars and trucks continued to decline (-3.2% vs -3.2%) while inflation steadied for shelter (3% vs 3%) and eased for food (2.7% vs 3.1%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.9%, the largest increase since June 2022, following a 0.3% gain in February and also in line with forecasts, boosted by a 21.2% jump in gas prices. Meanwhile, core inflation which excludes food and energy, also picked up though much more moderately, to an annual rate of 2.6%, compared to forecasts of 2.7%. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices increased by 0.2%, below expectations of 0.2%.

The annual inflation rate in the US likely jumped to 3.3% in March 2026, marking the highest level since May 2024 and a sharp increase from 2.4% in February. The rise was primarily driven by higher energy costs linked to the war with Iran, alongside the continued pass-through of tariffs into consumer prices. On a monthly basis, consumer prices are estimated to have risen 0.9%, the largest increase since June 2022, following a 0.3% gain in February. The jump comes as the US national average price of gasoline climbed above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years. Meanwhile, core inflation which excludes food and energy, is also expected to have picked up, though more moderately, to 2.7% year over year, the highest in five months, up from 2.5% in both January and February. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices likely increased by 0.3%, compared to 0.2% in February.