US Inflation Rate Seen Stable in February

The annual inflation rate in the US likely held steady at 2.4% in February 2026, unchanged from January and remaining at its lowest level since May 2025. On a monthly basis, the CPI is estimated to have risen by 0.3%, slightly accelerating from 0.2% in January. Gasoline prices probably picked up while prices for services, food, and housing are expected to have slowed, and used vehicle prices likely remained lower. Meanwhile, annual core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is projected to have remained unchanged at 2.5%, the same as in January and near its lowest level since 2021. On a monthly basis, core CPI is expected to have increased by 0.2%, less than 0.3% in the previous month. Overall, the February CPI report is expected to continue pointing to inflation slightly above the Federal Reserve’s target, while also suggesting a degree of stabilisation, partly reflecting base effects as stronger readings from a year earlier drop out of the annual calculation.

The annual inflation rate in the US slowed to 2.4% in January 2026, its lowest level since May, down from 2.7% in each of the previous two months and below forecasts of 2.5%. The deceleration largely reflects base effects, as higher readings from a year ago drop out of the annual calculation. Price pressures eased notably in the energy sector, with prices falling 0.1%, after a 2.3% rise in December, led by gasoline (-7.5% vs -3.4%) and fuel oil (-4.2% vs 7.4%). Prices of natural also rose at a slightly slower pace (9.8% vs 10.8%). A decline was also seen in prices for used cars and trucks (-2% vs 1.6%) while inflation slowed for food (3.1% vs 2.9%) and shelter (3% vs 3.2%). On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2%, below 0.3% in December and forecasts of 0.3%. Annual core inflation eased to 2.5%, its lowest reading since March 2021, compared with 2.6% in the prior month and in line with expectations. On a monthly basis, core CPI increased by 0.3%, slightly above 0.2% in December.

The annual inflation rate in the US likely slowed to 2.5% in January 2026, marking its lowest level since May, down from 2.7% in each of the previous two months. The deceleration largely reflects base effects, as higher readings from a year ago drop out of the annual calculation. On a monthly basis, the CPI is estimated to have risen by 0.3%, matching December’s increase. Food and electricity prices are expected to have moved higher, while gasoline prices likely declined. There are also indications that core goods prices may have firmed, as companies potentially used the start of the new calendar year to implement tariff-related price adjustments. Meanwhile, annual core inflation is projected to ease to 2.5%, its lowest reading since March 2021, compared with 2.6% in the prior month. On a monthly basis, core CPI is expected to have increased by 0.3%, slightly above December’s 0.2% rise.