US Inflation Rate Likely Steady, Core Seen Rising

The annual inflation rate in the US remained at 2.7% in December 2025, the same as in November and in line with market expectations. Price pressures eased notably in the energy sector, with prices rising at a much slower pace (2.3% vs. 4.2%), driven by a decline in gasoline prices (-3.4% vs. +0.9%) and a moderation in fuel oil inflation (7.4% vs. 11.3%), while natural gas prices rose more sharply (10.8% vs. 9.1%). Prices also increased at a slower rate for used cars and trucks (1.6% vs. 3.6%). By contrast, price gains accelerated for food (3.1% vs. 2.6%) and shelter (3.2% vs. 3.0%). Meanwhile, the annual core inflation rate remained unchanged at 2.6%, the lowest level since 2021, below expectations for a rise to 2.7%. On a monthly basis, the CPI edged up 0.3%, in line with forecasts, with shelter costs rising 0.4% and accounting for the largest contribution to the overall increase. The core rate came in at 0.2%, below forecasts of 0.3%.

The annual inflation rate in the US likely remained at 2.7% in December 2025, while the core rate probably edged up to 2.7% from 2.6% in November which was the lowest level since early 2021. On a month-over-month basis, headline CPI is expected to have increased by 0.3%, with core CPI also seen rising by 0.3%, driven mainly by higher goods prices. Month-over-month figures for November were not published by the BLS, as the agency was unable to collect data during the government shutdown. The December report may point to a reversal of the downward inflationary pressures observed in November; however, concerns over data quality remain as distortions linked to the shutdown may still be affecting the figures.

The annual inflation rate in the US came in at 2.7% in December 2025, the lowest since July, below forecast of 3.1% and 3% reported for September. The energy index increased 4.2%, with gasoline rising 0.9%, fuel oil soaring 11.3% and natural gas gaining 9.1%. Also, food prices rose 2.6%, shelter cost was up 3% and other notable increases were recorded for medical care (2.9%), household furnishings and operations (4.6%), recreation (1.8%), and used cars and trucks (3.6%). The lowest price increases were recorded for apparel (0.2%) and new vehicles (0.6%). Meanwhile, annual core inflation came in at 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, compared to forecasts of 3%. The BLS did not collect data for October 2025 due to the 43-day government shutdown. As a result, October figures were missing, and November monthly data were not released. However, the BLS said that the CPI increased 0.2% over the 2 months from September to November 2025.