US 10-Year Yield Holds at Over 6-Week Low

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note hovered around 4.4% on Thursday after falling roughly 10 basis points in the previous session to its lowest level in more than six weeks, as progress in US-Iran peace negotiations pushed oil prices back to pre-conflict levels and eased inflation concerns. Investors also continued to evaluate the outlook for Federal Reserve policy ahead of a key US inflation report that could help shape expectations for interest rates. Last week, the Fed signaled growing support for tighter monetary policy, with Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirming his commitment to bringing inflation under control. Market participants are now awaiting the latest PCE price index report, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Other major releases due include final first-quarter GDP data, May personal income and preliminary durable goods orders figures, as well as weekly jobless claims for the period ending June 20.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell for a 2nd consecutive session to 4.45% on Wednesday as easing tensions in the Middle East helped drive oil prices lower and alleviated concerns about inflationary pressures. Brent retreated to levels seen before the US-Iran conflict amid signs of improving tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Adding to the positive sentiment, President Trump said in a Truth Social post that Iran had informed the US that no tolls, insurance fees, or other charges would be imposed on vessels passing through the strategic waterway. Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming PCE inflation report, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, for further clues on the outlook for prices and monetary policy. Meanwhile, the Fed's hawkish tone last week has led markets to increase expectations for interest-rate hikes this year. Traders currently assign a roughly 68% probability that rates will be increased in September, up from 29% a week ago.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note eased to around 4.49% as investors reacted to signs that a US–Iran agreement may be moving closer to a durable resolution. At the same time, a flight to safety triggered by a sell-off in tech stocks provided additional support for the bond market. The US and Iran agreed on a roadmap toward a peace deal within 60 days, while the US issued a 60-day license allowing Tehran to sell oil on international markets. As a result, oil prices have declined, offering some relief on inflation pressures, although price growth remains elevated. The upcoming PCE inflation report, the Fed’s preferred gauge, will be closely watched this week. A hawkish tone from the Fed last week has prompted investors to increase bets on further rate hikes this year. Markets are currently pricing the probability of a rate increase in September at around 68%, up from 29% last week.