Treasury Yields Edge Down as Oil Prices Fall

2026-06-04 13:05 By Joana Taborda 1 min. read

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell about 4bps to 4.46% on Thursday, nearly reversing the 6bps increase recorded in the previous session.

Treasury prices benefited from a decline in oil prices as hopes grew that a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon could pave the way for a broader deal with Iran.

Despite the improvement in sentiment, uncertainty remains elevated and the situation continues to be highly fragile, with oil prices still well above pre-conflict levels.

Investors also continue to price in the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike before year-end, potentially as early as October, as higher energy prices add to inflationary pressures.

Meanwhile, recent labor market data have pointed to a resilient US economy, with employment conditions strengthening over the past two months.

Friday's jobs report is expected to provide further insight into the underlying strength of the labor market and its implications for monetary policy.



News Stream
Treasury Yields Edge Down as Oil Prices Fall
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell about 4bps to 4.46% on Thursday, nearly reversing the 6bps increase recorded in the previous session. Treasury prices benefited from a decline in oil prices as hopes grew that a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon could pave the way for a broader deal with Iran. Despite the improvement in sentiment, uncertainty remains elevated and the situation continues to be highly fragile, with oil prices still well above pre-conflict levels. Investors also continue to price in the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike before year-end, potentially as early as October, as higher energy prices add to inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, recent labor market data have pointed to a resilient US economy, with employment conditions strengthening over the past two months. Friday's jobs report is expected to provide further insight into the underlying strength of the labor market and its implications for monetary policy.
2026-06-04
US 10-Year Yield Holds Firm
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note hovered around 4.48% on Thursday after climbing in the previous session, as stronger-than-expected labor market data reinforced expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. The ADP report released Wednesday showed private-sector employment rose by 122K in May, beating forecasts and reaching its highest level since January 2025. Earlier in the week, JOLTS data indicated that job openings increased in April to their highest level since November 2024. Investors are now awaiting Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for further clues on the strength of the labor market. Treasury yields also found support from escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have kept oil prices elevated and added to inflationary pressures. Markets currently price in an 85% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate hike by year-end, up from 60% a week ago.
2026-06-04
Treasury Yields Rise Further After Strong ADP Report
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note climbed further to 4.49% on Wednesday after the ADP report showed that the private sector added 122K jobs in May, exceeding expectations and marking a new high since January 2025. The data pointed to a labor market that continues to gain momentum, reinforcing expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates later this year. Earlier this week, JOLTS data showed that job openings in April rose to their highest level since November 2024, further highlighting the resilience of labor demand. Treasury prices also came under pressure from escalating tensions in the Middle East, which pushed oil prices higher for a third consecutive session and renewed concerns about inflation. Markets now price in an 85% probability of a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end, up from 60% a week ago.
2026-06-03