Treasury Yields March Higher as Rising Oil Prices Weigh on Inflation

2026-06-03 09:33 By Joana Taborda 1 min. read

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.48% on Wednesday as escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher for a third consecutive session, fueling concerns about inflationary pressures.

The US and Iran exchanged additional military strikes, further straining a fragile ceasefire agreement.

Meanwhile, US President Trump proposed a new tariff of at least 10% on imports of goods allegedly produced using forced labor from 60 trading partners, including China, the EU, and Japan.

Investors are also awaiting key economic releases, including the ADP report and the ISM Services PMI, which will provide further insight into the strength of the US economy and shape expectations for the Fed's next policy moves.

On Tuesday, JOLTS data showed that job openings in April reached their highest level since November 2024, pointing to continued resilience in the labor market.

Markets currently assign almost a 60% probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike by December.



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Treasury Yields March Higher as Rising Oil Prices Weigh on Inflation
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.48% on Wednesday as escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher for a third consecutive session, fueling concerns about inflationary pressures. The US and Iran exchanged additional military strikes, further straining a fragile ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, US President Trump proposed a new tariff of at least 10% on imports of goods allegedly produced using forced labor from 60 trading partners, including China, the EU, and Japan. Investors are also awaiting key economic releases, including the ADP report and the ISM Services PMI, which will provide further insight into the strength of the US economy and shape expectations for the Fed's next policy moves. On Tuesday, JOLTS data showed that job openings in April reached their highest level since November 2024, pointing to continued resilience in the labor market. Markets currently assign almost a 60% probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike by December.
2026-06-03
US 10-Year Yield Steadies
The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note steadied around 4.45% on Wednesday as investors adopted a cautious stance amid stalled US-Iran peace negotiations and renewed tensions across the Middle East. According to the US Central Command, Iran launched ballistic missiles toward neighboring countries, while US forces responded with strikes on Qeshm Island. The prolonged conflict has continued to support higher energy prices, raising concerns that inflationary pressures could persist and strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer. Reinforcing that outlook, economic data released on Tuesday showed US job openings climbed in April to their highest level in nearly two years. Investors are now awaiting the release of private-sector payroll figures later on Wednesday, with particular focus on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for further guidance.
2026-06-03
US 10-Year Yield Halts Slide
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose was above 4.45% on Tuesday, halting the slide that bottomed at a three-week low in the prior week as the latest economic data favored restrictive policy by the Federal Reserve. The JOLTS indicated that job openings were well above expectations at their highest in over one year in April, consistent with robust labor data for the period in muted levels of jobless claims. On top of that, manufacturing activity was also above expectations in May per the ISM PMI, while prices continued to surge. Rate futures continued to show a portion of the market positioned for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year, even though the new FOMC Chairman Kevin Warsh had previously advocated for lower rates. The hawkish outlook for the central bank also persisted despite oil prices remaining below their peaks, as the continuous impasse between Iran and the US delayed expectations of restored energy supply from the region.
2026-06-02