US 10-Year Yield Extends Drop

2026-05-27 13:12 By Andre Joaquim 1 min. read

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to 4.47%, retreating sharply from the 16-month high of 4.7% touched on May 20th as a drop in energy prices limited the outlook of higher inflation.

Iran confirmed it has an unofficial draft of a peace deal document that would restore flows of tankers and commercial vessels through the Persian gulf within the month.

However, the White House later denied the report.

This was after the US administration signaled that they were closer to agreeing on a deal to end the war with Iran in previous days.

The resulting drop in energy prices and inflationary risks limited the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates this year.

The core PCE price index, which is the Fed's preferred gauge of underlying inflation, is expected to rise to an over two-year high of 3.3% in April.

In turn, strength in leading labor market indicators extended the backdrop of a strong labor market, with ADP weekly values remaining above their recent average.



News Stream
US 10-Year Yield Extends Drop
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to 4.47%, retreating sharply from the 16-month high of 4.7% touched on May 20th as a drop in energy prices limited the outlook of higher inflation. Iran confirmed it has an unofficial draft of a peace deal document that would restore flows of tankers and commercial vessels through the Persian gulf within the month. However, the White House later denied the report. This was after the US administration signaled that they were closer to agreeing on a deal to end the war with Iran in previous days. The resulting drop in energy prices and inflationary risks limited the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates this year. The core PCE price index, which is the Fed's preferred gauge of underlying inflation, is expected to rise to an over two-year high of 3.3% in April. In turn, strength in leading labor market indicators extended the backdrop of a strong labor market, with ADP weekly values remaining above their recent average.
2026-05-27
US 10-Year Yield Hits Near 2-Week Low
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note declined to around 4.48% on Wednesday, reaching its lowest level in nearly two weeks as investors further reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve interest rate hikes amid signs of progress toward a US-Iran peace agreement. President Donald Trump said negotiations to extend a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz are ongoing, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio cautioned that any final deal could still require several more days to finalize. However, renewed hostilities in the Middle East continued to cloud the outlook, with the US military saying it carried out self-defense strikes in southern Iran, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed it targeted an F-35 fighter jet and multiple drones after they allegedly entered Iranian airspace. Investors are now awaiting upcoming PCE inflation data for additional insight into the Federal Reserve’s future policy trajectory.
2026-05-27
Treasury Yields Fall to Kick Off the Week
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell about 6 basis points to 4.5% on Tuesday, as investors returned from the long weekend and remained cautiously optimistic that the US and Iran could still reach a near-term agreement, despite recent military strikes and ongoing mixed signals from both sides. Attention is also focused on the Fed’s policy outlook, with markets reassessing expectations for interest rates after the surge in oil prices fuelled inflation concerns. Traders are now pricing in an 80% probability of a rate hike by December, a significant reversal from earlier expectations of two 25bps cuts prior to the US and Iran. The upcoming PCE inflation report, the Fed’s preferred gauge of price pressures, will provide further clarity on the inflation trajectory and the central bank’s likely policy response.
2026-05-26