US 10-Year Yield Edges Higher

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note climbed to around 4.31% on Thursday, reaching a more than one-week high as stalled US-Iran peace efforts and continued tensions in the Strait of Hormuz kept energy prices elevated and inflation risks in focus. Tehran continues to assert control over the strategic waterway, having seized two vessels, while the US blockade of Iranian ports remains in place. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said the current truce would remain in effect indefinitely as Washington awaits a new peace proposal from Iran. Inflation concerns have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this year, a view supported by Fed nominee Kevin Warsh, who pledged to uphold the central bank’s independence from the White House. Investors now look ahead to weekly jobless claims and PMI data for further signals on the economic outlook.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was little changed at around 4.3% on Wednesday, as traders awaited developments in the Middle East, with uncertainty persisting despite some near-term relief from the ceasefire extension. US President Trump announced he would extend the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, just ahead of its expiration, to allow time for peace negotiations. He also indicated that no new attacks were planned, although the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would remain in place. However, uncertainty persists over the timing of any formal negotiations and news showed Iran fired ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve nominee Kevin Warsh pledged to maintain independence from the White House while advancing broad reforms, a stance viewed as more hawkish than markets had expected. The Fed will decide on monetary policy next week and no changes in the fed funds rate are expected.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note traded near 4.3% on Wednesday after rising in the previous session, supported by stronger economic data and elevated uncertainty in the Middle East. Reports indicated Vice President JD Vance canceled a planned trip to Islamabad for talks after Tehran informed the US via Pakistan that it would not attend the meeting. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump extended the current ceasefire, stating he would hold off on further strikes until Iran submits a new proposal and negotiations are finalized. On the data side, US retail sales rose more than expected in March, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this year. Fed nominee Kevin Warsh also pledged to maintain independence from the White House while pursuing broad reforms, a stance viewed as more hawkish than markets had anticipated.