US 10-Year Yield Climbs on Middle East Escalation

2026-04-20 02:49 By Jam Kaimo Samonte 1 min. read

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to around 4.27% on Monday, reversing the prior session’s decline as renewed US-Iran tensions lifted inflation concerns.

President Donald Trump said the US Navy fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman after it ignored warnings to stop while exiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran also reversed plans to reopen the strait following Washington’s refusal to lift its blockade on Iranian ports and stated it would not participate in a second round of negotiations.

The prolonged conflict has triggered a severe energy supply shock, heightening inflation risks and increasing the likelihood of additional central bank tightening, while further dampening expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

The Fed is widely expected to keep policy rates unchanged this month and to remain on hold for the rest of 2026.



News Stream
US 10-Year Yield Climbs on Middle East Escalation
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to around 4.27% on Monday, reversing the prior session’s decline as renewed US-Iran tensions lifted inflation concerns. President Donald Trump said the US Navy fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman after it ignored warnings to stop while exiting the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran also reversed plans to reopen the strait following Washington’s refusal to lift its blockade on Iranian ports and stated it would not participate in a second round of negotiations. The prolonged conflict has triggered a severe energy supply shock, heightening inflation risks and increasing the likelihood of additional central bank tightening, while further dampening expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. The Fed is widely expected to keep policy rates unchanged this month and to remain on hold for the rest of 2026.
2026-04-20
US 10Y Bond Yield Hits 4-week Low
US 10 Year Government Bond Yield decreased to 4.23%, the lowest since March 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, US 10 Year Note Bond Yield lost 2.70 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 16.70 basis points.
2026-04-17
Treasury Yields Fall on Hormuz Reopening News
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell by nearly 7 basis points to around 4.25% on Friday, approaching one-month lows, as news of the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz helped ease inflation concerns, at least in the short term. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed that the strait is now fully open to all commercial vessels for the duration of the 10-day ceasefire. In response, oil prices tumbled more than 10%, prompting traders to increase bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Markets are now pricing in roughly a 50-50 chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by year-end, up from about a 30% probability on Thursday. This compares with earlier expectations of two rate cuts before the conflict escalated.
2026-04-17