Treasury Yields Little Changed as Ceasefire Monitored

2026-04-09 13:05 By Joana Taborda 1 min. read

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was little changed at 4.3% on Thursday, the lowest since mid-March, as ivestors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East, where a recently announced ceasefire appeared increasingly fragile ahead of peace talks scheduled for Friday.

The agreement showed signs of strain as Israel maintained its conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon, while Tehran accused the US of violating the deal.

The Strait of Hormuz also remained closed and oil prices marched higher again.

On the data front, February PCE inflation rose in line with expectations, while Q4 GDP growth was revised lower and initial jobless claims edged up.

Attention turns to the March CPI report due tomorrow for insights into how the Middle East conflict has impacted prices so far.

Minutes from the FOMC’s March meeting showed policymakers were concerned that the war could lead to sustained inflation requiring further rate hikes, although they still expected one rate cut this year.



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Treasury Yields Little Changed as Ceasefire Monitored
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was little changed at 4.3% on Thursday, the lowest since mid-March, as ivestors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East, where a recently announced ceasefire appeared increasingly fragile ahead of peace talks scheduled for Friday. The agreement showed signs of strain as Israel maintained its conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon, while Tehran accused the US of violating the deal. The Strait of Hormuz also remained closed and oil prices marched higher again. On the data front, February PCE inflation rose in line with expectations, while Q4 GDP growth was revised lower and initial jobless claims edged up. Attention turns to the March CPI report due tomorrow for insights into how the Middle East conflict has impacted prices so far. Minutes from the FOMC’s March meeting showed policymakers were concerned that the war could lead to sustained inflation requiring further rate hikes, although they still expected one rate cut this year.
2026-04-09
US 10-Year Yield Rises Slightly
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note climbed to around 4.3%, recovering from three-week lows as a fragile US-Iran ceasefire kept investors cautious about inflation risks. Iranian media reported that oil tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz remained suspended following fresh Israeli strikes on Lebanon, while a senior Iranian official said three provisions of the ceasefire proposal had already been violated. On Wednesday, Treasury yields had dropped sharply after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, prompting a sudden fall in oil prices and easing inflation concerns. Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting showed that a growing number of members saw a potential rate hike as necessary to curb inflation, though many still hoped the next move could be a cut. Investors now await February personal spending and the PCE deflator on Thursday, followed by Friday’s CPI report, for further guidance.
2026-04-09
US 10-Year Yield Pares Retreat
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury erased its 7bps drop to hover flat on Wednesday after Iran stated the US violated their ceasefire agreement, jeoperdizing the pullback in oil prices that calmed inflation fears. Still, the US refrained from striking Iran as threatened and yield maintained their drop from eight-month highs of 4.45% two weeks prior. Officials had pledged higher tanker flows through the Hormuz chokepoint to somewhat restore higher levels of energy exports with the ceasefire, although reports that tanker operators were still threatened by Tehran had already dimmed optimism of normalized oil. The energy shock since the start of the conflict raised energy costs globally and prompted several FOMC members to increase their concerns of inflationary pressures, per the latest meeting minutes. The initial impact of higher energy prices will be known Friday with the release of the US CPI, which is expected to accelerate to a two-year high.
2026-04-08