US 10Y Bond Yield Hits 33-week High

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note swung as traders digested the latest developments in the conflict with Iran. President Trump said the US and Iran had held “productive” talks, prompting him to order a five-day pause on strikes against key Iranian energy infrastructure. The move follows a 48-hour deadline previously given to Iran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which was set to expire later today. However, Iran’s Fars News Agency said there has been no communication with the US, either directly or via intermediaries. The benchmark yield initially fell after President Trump’s announcement, later reversed course and moved to 4.39%, its highest level since July last year, and then fell again to 4.33%. Persistent concerns about inflation, driven by a surge in oil prices, have led traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

US 10 Year Government Bond Yield increased to 4.42%, the highest since July 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, US 10 Year Note Bond Yield gained 38.30 basis points, and in the last 12 months, it increased 7.50 basis points.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to around 4.4% on Monday, reaching eight-month highs as surging oil prices from the Iran war fueled inflation concerns and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. The US-Israel war with Iran entered its fourth week with no sign of easing, with President Donald Trump threatening strikes on Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, while Tehran warned it would target key US and Israeli assets across the region if its energy facilities were hit. Markets dialed back expectations for additional Fed rate cuts, while some traders priced in a potential rate hike toward year-end. Last week, the central bank held its policy rate steady as expected, with Chair Jerome Powell noting it was too early to gauge the full economic impact of the Iran conflict. The ECB, BOE and BOJ also kept rates unchanged but signaled readiness to tighten policy further if inflationary pressures persist.