Treasury Yields Lower to Kick Off the Week

2026-03-16 12:17 By Joana Taborda 1 min. read

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged down about 4 bps to 4.24% on Monday, easing after a 15 bps surge to more than four-week highs last week, as traders continue to assess the conflict with Iran and its impact on inflation and the fiscal outlook.

Oil prices eased after Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US is allowing Iranian oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz, while President Trump is urging other nations to help ensure the waterway remains open.

Still, uncertainty persists over when the conflict could end.

The US says it is in talks with Iran, although Tehran has denied claims that it is seeking a truce.

Meanwhile, the Fed will announce its monetary policy decision later this week.

While no change to the federal funds rate is expected, investors will closely watch policymakers’ assessment of the recent spike in energy prices and its impact on inflation and borrowing costs.

Markets are currently pricing in only one 25bps rate cut, likely not before December.



News Stream
Treasury Yields Lower to Kick Off the Week
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged down about 4 bps to 4.24% on Monday, easing after a 15 bps surge to more than four-week highs last week, as traders continue to assess the conflict with Iran and its impact on inflation and the fiscal outlook. Oil prices eased after Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US is allowing Iranian oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz, while President Trump is urging other nations to help ensure the waterway remains open. Still, uncertainty persists over when the conflict could end. The US says it is in talks with Iran, although Tehran has denied claims that it is seeking a truce. Meanwhile, the Fed will announce its monetary policy decision later this week. While no change to the federal funds rate is expected, investors will closely watch policymakers’ assessment of the recent spike in energy prices and its impact on inflation and borrowing costs. Markets are currently pricing in only one 25bps rate cut, likely not before December.
2026-03-16
US Treasury Yields Resume Climb
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note moved back to 4.27% on Friday, hovering near four-week highs after briefly falling earlier in the session, as the conflict with Iran continued to escalate. Defense Secretary Hegseth told reporters that the US would carry out its largest wave of strikes yet against Iran on Friday. Oil prices also recovered after an early decline, remaining near their highest levels since 2022. The benchmark US yield is up nearly 13bps for the week, amid mounting concerns about an energy-driven inflationary spiral and worries over fiscal imbalances linked to war-related spending. The Federal Reserve will decide on monetary policy next week and, although no changes to the federal funds rate are expected, markets will closely watch for clues about policymakers’ outlook for the remainder of the year. Investors are currently pricing in only one rate cut by the Fed in 2026.
2026-03-13
Treasury Yields Fall on Friday
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell about 2bps to 4.25% on Friday, marking its first decline in four sessions, as investors found some relief in a slight easing of oil prices following this week’s rally. At the same time, traders assessed a fresh batch of key economic data, including the PCE report, which showed the annual PCE inflation rate slowing to 2.8%. Meanwhile, GDP growth was revised sharply lower to 0.7% in Q4, half the initial estimate of 1.4%. As a result, traders reinforced bets on one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, possibly in September. The central bank will decide on monetary policy next week and, although no changes to the federal funds rate are expected, markets will closely watch for clues about policymakers’ outlook for the remainder of the year. The benchmark US yield is still up nearly 13bps for the week, amid mounting concerns about an energy-driven inflationary spiral and worries over fiscal imbalances linked to war-related spending.
2026-03-13