US 10-Year Yield Surges 10bps

2026-03-02 18:01 By Andre Joaquim 1 min. read

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note soared over 10bps to 4.05% on Monday, erasing the bond rally from last week as higher inflation risks supported an outlook of restrictive interest rates from the Federal Reserve, offsetting the impact of low risk appetite.

The US attacked Iranian targets and killed their supreme leader, prompting Iran to strike a series of civilian targets and energy infrastructure over the weekend while driving shipping companies to suspend trade through the Persian Gulf.

The events triggered a surge in energy commodities, raising concerns that inflation could rise and force the Fed to keep rates elevated for a longer time.

The concerns were magnified after the ISM prices gauge for manufacturers unexpectedly surged to a three-year high, while strong orders limited the argument for doves in the FOMC.

Markets continue to expect a rate cut in the Fed's July meeting, although rate traders increased their positions for a September cut in the session.



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US 10-Year Yield Surges 10bps
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note soared over 10bps to 4.05% on Monday, erasing the bond rally from last week as higher inflation risks supported an outlook of restrictive interest rates from the Federal Reserve, offsetting the impact of low risk appetite. The US attacked Iranian targets and killed their supreme leader, prompting Iran to strike a series of civilian targets and energy infrastructure over the weekend while driving shipping companies to suspend trade through the Persian Gulf. The events triggered a surge in energy commodities, raising concerns that inflation could rise and force the Fed to keep rates elevated for a longer time. The concerns were magnified after the ISM prices gauge for manufacturers unexpectedly surged to a three-year high, while strong orders limited the argument for doves in the FOMC. Markets continue to expect a rate cut in the Fed's July meeting, although rate traders increased their positions for a September cut in the session.
2026-03-02
Treasury Yields Edge Higher
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose 9 basis points to 4.04% on Monday, partially reversing last week’s bond rally that had briefly pushed yields below the 4% mark. The move came as escalating conflict involving Iran triggered a surge in energy prices, reigniting concerns about renewed inflationary pressures that could limit the Federal Reserve’s scope to cut interest rates further this year. A series of attacks by the US and Israel on Iran prompted retaliatory strikes by Tehran against targets in the region, heightening geopolitical uncertainty and driving oil and natural gas prices significantly higher. Those inflation concerns ultimately outweighed an initial decline in yields driven by safe-haven demand, leading Treasury yields to edge higher. Markets now anticipate the first cut in the federal funds rate to come no earlier than July, while the probability of an additional reduction in October stands at only around 35%.
2026-03-02
US 10-Year Yield Hits 17-Month Low
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell to around 3.93% on Monday, marking its lowest level since September 2024 as the escalating Middle East conflict drove demand for safe-haven bonds. The US and Israel carried out military strikes on Iran over the weekend that resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran retaliated by targeting US assets across the region, raising fears of a broader conflict. Meanwhile, data on Friday showed US producer prices rose more than expected in January, indicating companies are passing tariff costs to consumers and complicating the path for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Still, markets are pricing in two 25-basis-point rate cuts this year amid speculation that the recent market turmoil could push the central bank toward easing monetary policy.
2026-03-02