Treasury Yields Fall After Weak Labour Data

2026-02-05 13:59 By Joana Taborda 1 min. read

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell 4 bps to 4.24% on Thursday, hitting its lowest level in about a week, as renewed concerns over the health of the US economy, the labour market and AI valuations weighed on sentiment.

The Challenger report showed US companies announced 108.4K job cuts last month, the highest January total since 2009, while initial jobless claims rose to 231K, the highest in two months and well above forecasts of 212K.

Adding to the cautious tone, the ADP report showed private-sector job growth fell well short of expectations.

The run of weaker labour data reinforced bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets still pricing in a first reduction in June and a second potentially in September.

Meanwhile, the US Treasury maintained its issuance guidance for the coming quarters, favouring a greater share of short-term bills over longer-dated bonds in an effort to manage borrowing costs amid elevated interest rates.



News Stream
Treasury Yields Rise
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose 4 basis points to 4.22% on Friday, partially retracing a 10bps drop in the previous session, as risk appetite returned to markets. On Thursday, weaker-than-expected US labour data raised concerns about the health of the economy and, alongside a tech sell-off and a sharp decline in crypto assets, prompted a flight to safety into Treasuries. Sentiment improved on Friday amid a rebound in technology stocks and preliminary data showing that the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index unexpectedly climbed to a six-month high. Looking ahead, investors will focus on the delayed US jobs report and the upcoming CPI release next week for further clues on economic momentum and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Markets are now pricing in around 58bps of rate cuts by the Fed this year, up from about 50bps earlier in the week.
2026-02-06
10-Year Treasury Yield Falls Further
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell below the 4.2% mark, the lowest in three weeks, as a batch of soft labor data supported the outlook of multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this week. The JOLTS showed that job openings fell to a five-year low in December and the Challenger report reflected the most January job cuts since 2009, while initial jobless claims were sharply above expectations to a two-month high. Adding to the cautious tone, the ADP report showed private-sector job growth fell well short of expectations. The run of weaker labor data reinforced bets on multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, with markets still pricing in a first reduction in June and a second potentially in September. Meanwhile, the US Treasury maintained its issuance guidance for the coming quarters, favouring a greater share of short-term bills over longer-dated bonds in an effort to manage borrowing costs amid elevated interest rates.
2026-02-05
Treasury Yields Fall After Weak Labour Data
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell 4 bps to 4.24% on Thursday, hitting its lowest level in about a week, as renewed concerns over the health of the US economy, the labour market and AI valuations weighed on sentiment. The Challenger report showed US companies announced 108.4K job cuts last month, the highest January total since 2009, while initial jobless claims rose to 231K, the highest in two months and well above forecasts of 212K. Adding to the cautious tone, the ADP report showed private-sector job growth fell well short of expectations. The run of weaker labour data reinforced bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets still pricing in a first reduction in June and a second potentially in September. Meanwhile, the US Treasury maintained its issuance guidance for the coming quarters, favouring a greater share of short-term bills over longer-dated bonds in an effort to manage borrowing costs amid elevated interest rates.
2026-02-05