Dollar Poised for Second Monthly Gain

The dollar index climbed to around 101.2 on Tuesday and was on track for a second straight monthly advance, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement multiple interest rate hikes this year. The index has gained more than 2% so far this month, putting it on course for its strongest monthly performance since July last year. Markets continue to price in three Fed rate increases this year, with the first potentially arriving in September. Investors are now focused on the upcoming US monthly jobs report for further clues on the central bank's policy path. Meanwhile, the US and Iran were scheduled to resume peace talks in Doha following a pause in recent hostilities, though prospects for a lasting ceasefire remain uncertain. A major sticking point remains after Tehran reiterated its intention to oversee traffic through the Strait of Hormuz even if Oman decides not to participate.

The US dollar index eased to 101.2 from the 14-month high of 101.8 on June 24th as lower inflationary risks drove the market to scale back the magnitude of rate hikes expected by the Federal Reserve. US and Iran were set to resume peace talks after halting their recent attacks. This added continuity to increasing flows of tankers from the Persian Gulf following the memorandum of understanding signed by both countries, making crude oil prices retreat toward their pre-war levels. Higher energy costs had driven a portion of FOMC members to project multiple rate hikes by the central bank this year, aligned with evidence of traction in core inflation. The strength of the greenback was also owed to evidence of a robust labor market, set to be tested again with this week's jobs report. In the meantime, hawkish monetary turns were also tamed by other G10 central banks, including the ECB and BoJ, which have already raised interest rates to counteract accelerating prices.

The dollar index was little changed at around 101.3 on Monday after reaching a more than one-year high last week, as investors awaited the latest US monthly jobs report for fresh clues on labor market strength and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation under control, reinforcing the hawkish tone of his debut earlier this month that prompted markets to scale back expectations for US rate cuts this year. Markets now consider the possibility of multiple Fed rate hikes this year, with a majority pricing the first increase in September. Meanwhile, investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East after oil prices climbed following renewed clashes between the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz, although both sides agreed to halt further attacks ahead of peace talks set to resume this week in Doha, Qatar.