Dollar Pressured by US-Iran Optimism

2026-04-15 01:45 By Jam Kaimo Samonte 1 min. read

The dollar index traded near 98 on Wednesday, hovering at six-week lows as hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Middle East conflict dampened safe-haven demand for the currency.

The move has nearly wiped out all the gains made since the Iran war began.

The US and Iran are reportedly preparing for a second round of peace talks before the current two-week ceasefire expires, even as rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to exacerbate global energy risks.

Oil prices pulled back sharply, easing concerns over inflation and potential central bank rate hikes.

The Federal Reserve is now widely expected to keep rates unchanged for the remainder of the year, with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggesting that rate cuts could be delayed until 2027 depending on how persistently high oil prices remain.

Meanwhile, markets will focus on upcoming data including import and export price indexes, alongside the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index.



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Dollar Pressured by US-Iran Optimism
The dollar index traded near 98 on Wednesday, hovering at six-week lows as hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Middle East conflict dampened safe-haven demand for the currency. The move has nearly wiped out all the gains made since the Iran war began. The US and Iran are reportedly preparing for a second round of peace talks before the current two-week ceasefire expires, even as rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to exacerbate global energy risks. Oil prices pulled back sharply, easing concerns over inflation and potential central bank rate hikes. The Federal Reserve is now widely expected to keep rates unchanged for the remainder of the year, with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggesting that rate cuts could be delayed until 2027 depending on how persistently high oil prices remain. Meanwhile, markets will focus on upcoming data including import and export price indexes, alongside the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index.
2026-04-15
Dollar Falls for 7th Session
The dollar index fell to 98 on Tuesday, extending its decline to a seventh straight session and reaching its lowest level since late February before the Iran conflict began. Traders remain hopeful that a permanent ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran can be reached. Although weekend negotiations failed and President Donald Trump announced a blockade on Iranian oil shipments, he later indicated that Tehran had made contact and was open to further discussions. Expectations of a ceasefire and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz weighed on oil prices, reducing pressure on inflation and lowering expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. On the data front, US producer prices rose 0.5% in March, below forecasts, while ADP figures showed the economy added 39,250 jobs in the week ending March 28, marking a fourth week of solid job growth.
2026-04-14
Dollar Falls for 7th Session
The dollar index fell to 98 on Tuesday, marking a seventh consecutive session of losses and its lowest level since late February, before the conflict with Iran began. Traders remain hopeful that a permanent ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran can be reached. Both countries are reportedly considering another round of negotiations after weekend talks in Pakistan ended without a deal, with the aim of resuming discussions before the current two-week ceasefire expires. According to Reuters, the parties could return to Islamabad for talks later this week. Meanwhile, President Trump has initiated a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have eased slightly but remain elevated. Investors are also awaiting the PPI report due today for further insight into the impact of the recent oil shock on inflation, which is expected to show a sharp rise in energy prices. Money markets currently assign a 42% probability of a Fed rate cut by year-end.
2026-04-14