Dollar Rises Ahead of Key CPI Report

The dollar index steadied around 100.2 on Monday after surging last week, with investors awaiting several appearances by Federal Reserve officials this week for further clues on the outlook for monetary policy. On Sunday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation remains too high and that price pressures have spread beyond the initial oil-price shock linked to the Iran war. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is scheduled to speak later Monday, followed by New York Fed President John Williams on Tuesday. Last week, the dollar index climbed more than 1% after the Fed raised interest rates and signaled at least one additional hike this year, while Chair Warsh reiterated the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation under control. The Bank of Japan also raised rates as expected, although two policymakers dissented, suggesting the central bank may move more cautiously with further increases than previously anticipated and weighing on the yen.

The dollar index rose to 100.4 on Friday, its highest level in one-and-a-half months, continuing to benefit from the latest FOMC decision and a weaker yen. The Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bps to 3.75%-4%, as expected. The Fed also signalled at least one more rate hike this year, while Chair Warsh reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to taming inflation, helping to restore market confidence in its policy stance and credibility. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan raised borrowing costs by 25bps, as anticipated, but two policymakers voted against the hike, suggesting that the central bank may not proceed with further increases as quickly as initially expected, and sending the yen lower. The dollar is up nearly 1.3% on the week.

The dollar index held around 100.2 on Friday, remaining close to seven-week highs as traders weighed the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook following its latest rate decision and amid softer oil prices. The index is heading for a weekly gain of more than 1% after the FOMC unanimously lifted the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, marking its first increase in three years. Fed officials also indicated that additional tightening could come later this year as they seek to contain rising price pressures, with Chair Kevin Warsh noting that inflation remains elevated. The Bank of Japan is also expected to raise rates, while the Bank of England left borrowing costs unchanged on Thursday but cautioned that prolonged conflict in the Middle East could eventually require a rate hike. Meanwhile, oil prices extended their decline for a third session as Saudi Arabia worked to restore flows through its East-West pipeline, easing inflation worries.