US Business Activity Rebounds: S&P

The S&P Global flash US Composite PMI increased to 52 in April 2026, the highest in three months, from 50.3 in March which was the lowest since August 2023. The reading showed that US business activity growth recovered slightly following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. However, the overall pace of expansion remained subdued, most notably in the services economy (51.3 vs 49.8) where demand faltered. New business placed at service providers rose at the slowest rate seen over the past two years, led by an ongoing decline in exports. While manufacturing output recorded the strongest gain in four years (55.7 vs 53.2), the increase in part reflected stock building in the face of concerns over supply availability and price hikes. Input cost inflation accelerated and supply delays worsened at a pace not seen since mid-2022, contributing to the largest monthly jump in average selling prices for goods and services since July 2022. Also, employment rose only marginally.

The S&P Global US Composite PMI was revised sharply lower to 50.3 in March 2026 from a preliminary 51.4, the lowest reading since September 2023, compared to 51.9 in February. The reading pointed to a sharper slowdown in private sector activity, which nearly stalled, as a renewed contraction in service sector activity (49.8 vs 51.7) offset a stronger uptick in manufacturing output. Also, growth in new work eased to a three-month low, while business confidence in the coming 12 months was the most subdued since last October. In turn, private sector employment fell for the first time in just over a year. Input price inflation, meanwhile, accelerated to the highest seen in 2026 so far whilst output charges rose at a stronger pace.

The flash S&P Global US Composite PMI slipped to 51.4 in March 2026 from 51.9 in February, marking its lowest level since April last year and signaling a second straight month of slowing growth. While still above the 50 threshold that indicates expansion, the reading points to the weakest quarterly performance since late 2023. Business activity slowed to an 11-month low as new orders softened and prices surged following the war in the Middle East. The slowdown was led by the services sector, while manufacturing showed resilience with stronger output and order growth, supported in part by reduced tariff concerns. Confidence across the private sector weakened, leading to the first drop in employment in over a year. Input costs rose sharply, driving the fastest increase in selling prices since August 2022, largely linked to higher energy costs and tighter supply, while manufacturing delivery times lengthened significantly.