Chicago PMI Unexpectedly Deteriorates

The Chicago Business Barometer climbed to 54 in January 2026, up from 42.7 in the prior month and well above market estimates of 44. This marked a solid return to growth in Chicago's economic activity after 25 consecutive months of decline. Employment rose 17.5 points to its highest level since December 2024, while new orders surged 15.8 points to levels not seen since March 2022. Production, backlogs, and inventories rose, while supplier deliveries slowed and prices paid fell nine points to a one-year low.

The Chicago Business Barometer rose to 43.5 in December 2025 from 36.3 in the prior month and above market estimates of 39.5. This was the 25th consecutive month with readings below the neutral 50 threshold, signaling a solid contraction in Chicago’s economic activity and the sharpest since May 2024.

The Chicago Business Barometer fell to 36.3 in November 2025 from 43.8 in the prior month and against market estimates of 44.3. This was the 24th consecutive month with readings below the neutral 50 threshold, signaling a solid contraction in Chicago’s economic activity and the sharpest since May 2024. The sub-indexes of new orders, production and employment all declined. Meanwhile, supplier deliveries went up.