India - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for India including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the India economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.80 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.3 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.52 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 percent
Inflation Rate 4.58 4.6 5.1 4.7 4.4 4.8 percent
Interest Rate 6.00 6 6 5.75 5.75 4.75 percent
Balance of Trade -13720.00 -16200 -14300 -14900 -12471 -11100 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 68.70 69.2 69.2 69.2 69 70 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 68.40
65.79 66.43 67.08 67.74 70.44
Stock Market 34344.91
points
32588 31776 30984 30215 27317
Government Bond 10Y 7.85
percent
7.48 7.68 7.88 8.08 8.96
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.80
percent
1.6 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate 7.20
percent
7.3 7.4 7.2 7 5.7
GDP 2263.79
USD Billion
2500 2500 2500 2900 3100
GDP Constant Prices 32495.60
INR Billion
32348 32938 34835 34544 39362
Gross National Product 12865461.00
INR Tens Of Million
12491406 12497431 13791774 12895132 15583781
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 10519.30
INR Billion
10111 10213 11277 9834 12742
GDP per capita 1861.50
USD
2500 2500 2500 3100 3500
GDP per capita PPP 6092.60
USD
6500 6500 6500 6700 7000
GDP From Agriculture 5722.27
INR Billion
4119 3460 6134 4808 6931
GDP From Construction 2379.51
INR Billion
2368 2280 2551 2351 2882
GDP From Manufacturing 5247.83
INR Billion
5199 5626 5626 5705 6357
GDP From Mining 880.10
INR Billion
1046 796 943 1057 1066
GDP From Public Administration 3994.68
INR Billion
3688 3932 4282 3969 4839
GDP From Utilities 641.71
INR Billion
690 692 688 635 777
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.52
percent
3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6
Employed Persons 29650.00
Thousand
29693 29909 30126 30155 32200
Unemployed Persons 44.85
Million
43.86 43.34 42.82 42.49 39.95
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.50
percent
51.9 51.51 53.54 51.46 55.32
Population 1283.60
Million
1317 1323 1320 1338 1340
Retirement Age Women 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Living Wage Family 17400.00
INR/Month
18500 18500 18500 19800 19800
Living Wage Individual 11000.00
INR/Month
13100 13100 14000 11000 18000
Wages 272.19
INR/Day
362 362 362 386 400
Wages High Skilled 44000.00
INR/Month
65500 65500 65500 45500 46500
Wages In Manufacturing 347.30
INR/Day
450 450 450 470 500
Wages Low Skilled 10300.00
INR/Month
16000 16000 16000 17000 18000
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.90
percent
15.5 15.5 15.2 15.5 13.5
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.58
percent
4.6 5.1 4.7 4.4 4.8
Consumer Price Index CPI 137.10
Index Points
139 143 144 144 158
GDP Deflator 128.80
Index Points
130 130 130 127 145
Producer Prices 116.80
Index Points
116 118 119 120 131
Producer Prices Change 3.18
percent
3 3.2 2.9 3.3 5.9
Export Prices 372.00
Index Points
337 341 345 359 399
Import Prices 523.00
Index Points
505 503 520 494 510
Food Inflation 2.80
percent
4.3 4 4.2 4.63 4.7
Inflation Rate Mom 0.44
percent
0.1 0.58 0.2 0.48 0.32
Cpi Housing Utilities 142.90
Index Points
137 143 146 148 160
CPI Transportation 121.90
Index Points
122 125 124 130 137
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.00
percent
6 6 5.75 5.75 4.75
Cash Reserve Ratio 4.00
percent
4 4 4 4 4
Interbank Rate 6.31
percent
6.19 6.19 5.94 5.94 4.94
Money Supply M1 29755.30
INR Billion
28976 28937 28905 28871 28504
Money Supply M2 32378.01
INR Billion
31002 30922 30931 30883 30548
Money Supply M3 139620.96
INR Billion
139521 141365 142580 143363 143665
Central Bank Balance Sheet 16298.72
INR Billions
17258 17320 17341 17347 17350
Foreign Exchange Reserves 417700.00
USD Million
418399 418077 417904 417810 417702
Loan Growth 12.60
percent
11.41 11.36 8.5 11.37 7
Reverse Repo Rate 5.75
percent
5.75 5.75 5.5 5.5 5
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -13720.00
USD Million
-16200 -14300 -14900 -12471 -11100
Exports 25910.00
USD Million
24600 25000 24500 24850 28900
Imports 39630.00
USD Million
40800 39300 39400 37321 40000
Current Account -13465.11
USD Million
-15000 -8178 -4100 -8290 -2460
Current Account to GDP -0.70
percent
-1.3 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.2
External Debt 513438.00
USD Million
525000 530000 535000 541000 594000
Terms of Trade 71.10
Index Points
66.65 67.8 69.88 72.59 78.32
Capital Flows 33.39
USD Million
28.12 -33.53 23.6 -29.34 7.14
Foreign Direct Investment 4007.00
USD Million
1878 1635 1588 1507 1299
Remittances 11623.76
USD Million
11084 11049 11057 11055 11055
Tourist Arrivals 1026000.00
796300 800600 873800 884000 762000
Gold Reserves 558.10
Tonnes
558 558 558 558 558
Crude Oil Production 716.00
BBL/D/1K
729 729 731 730 730
Terrorism Index 7.53
7.45 7.45 7.61 7.59 7.72
Weapons Sales 56.00
USD Million
56 56 56 56 56
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 68.70
percent
69.2 69.2 69.2 69 70
Government Budget -3.24
percent of GDP
-3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3
Government Budget Value -7156.99
INR Billion
-4438 -5010 -6263 -4878 -6208
Government Spending 3228.15
INR Billion
3810 3847 3461 3233 3910
Government Revenues 12834.72
INR Billion
2254 6590 11200 15500 12500
Fiscal Expenditure 19991.71
INR Billion
6692 11600 17463 20378 18708
Military Expenditure 59757.10
USD Million
54286 55831 57377 57487 57406
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 59.70
Index Points
55.9 56.5 57 59.41 59
Manufacturing PMI 51.60
51.5 51.8 52.1 51.9 51.2
Services PMI 51.40
Index Points
52 51 52.1 50.4 51.9
Industrial Production 4.40
percent
3.8 3.7 4.1 4.8 6.5
Industrial Production Mom 9.00
percent
1 0.82 0.72 0.64 0.87
Manufacturing Production 4.40
percent
3.4 2.24 4.1 6.2 5.6
Changes in Inventories 228.82
INR Billion
229 230 229 230 230
Car Production 248696.00
Units
224841 260114 218189 262936 238720
Car Registrations 256459.00
247048 251633 250487 250714 250690
Internet Speed 6492.06
KBps
10305 11003 11681 12339 18445
IP Addresses 9378846.00
IP
9490098 9484147 9485862 9489341 9490569
Mining Production 2.80
percent
1.9 2.5 2.8 2.3 2.1
Steel Production 9227.00
Thousand Tonnes
8694 8623 8673 8686 8673
Cement Production 28473.00
Thousands of Tonnes
25102 23425 27460 29690 29791
Competitiveness Index 4.59
Points
4.61 4.61 4.61 4.55 5.51
Competitiveness Rank 40.00
44 44 44 39 51
Composite Pmi 51.90
51.4 51.5 53 51.46 51.6
Corruption Index 40.00
Points
40 40 40 40 42
Corruption Rank 81.00
81 81 74 81 72
Ease of Doing Business 100.00
128 128 128 100 126
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 95.10
Index Points
99 102 103 105 97
Consumer Spending 19190.11
INR Billion
17630 17900 20572 19777 23245
Disposable Personal Income 169623970.00
INR Million
169623970 169623970 169623970 169623970 231000000
Personal Savings 26099.21
INR Billion
26793 27012 27231 27451 29180
Bank Lending Rate 9.45
percent
9.6 9.6 9.6 9.86 7.5
Households Debt To Gdp 11.10
percent of GDP
11.08 11.09 11.02 10.99 10.57
Gasoline Prices 1.12
USD/Liter
1.07 1.01 0.95 0.9 0.62
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 138.00
Index Points
148 150 154 139 175
Construction Output 4.10
percent
5 4.7 4.5 4.8 3
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.61
percent
34.61 34.61 34.61 35 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.54
percent
35.54 35.54 35.54 36 35.54
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 18 18
Social Security Rate 24.00
percent
24 24 24 24 24
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 18.62
celsius
28.81 26.34 20.64 20.01 24.46
Precipitation 6.30
mm
77.66 224 35.48 14.75 89.85