India - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for India including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the India economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.3 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.52 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 percent
Inflation Rate 3.69 4.1 4.8 4.9 5 4.8 percent
Interest Rate 6.50 6.5 6.75 6.75 6.75 5.75 percent
Balance of Trade -17390.00 -14300 -14900 -15477 -16017 -11100 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 68.70 69.2 69.2 69 69 70 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 72.80
 70.8 71.07 71.35 71.63 72.75
Stock Market 37537.50
points		 38381 38060 37738 37421 36179
Government Bond 10Y 8.10
percent		 7.97 8.05 8.12 8.2 8.51
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90
percent		 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate 8.20
percent		 7.7 7.6 7.5 6.9 5.7
GDP 2597.49
USD Billion		 2700 2700 2900 2900 3100
GDP Constant Prices 33739.83
INR Billion		 32942 34900 37376 36068 39287
Gross National Product 12865461.00
INR Tens Of Million		 12515509 13843236 13830371 13753178 15583400
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 10652.17
INR Billion		 10145 11018 12024 11387 12403
GDP per capita 1963.55
USD		 2500 2500 3100 3100 3500
GDP per capita PPP 6426.67
USD		 6900 6900 7100 7100 7200
GDP From Agriculture 4197.47
INR Billion		 3462 6097 5116 4487 6864
GDP From Construction 2491.03
INR Billion		 2290 2554 2595 2663 2875
GDP From Manufacturing 5690.94
INR Billion		 5646 5668 6388 6084 6380
GDP From Mining 1009.54
INR Billion		 797 960 1238 1079 1081
GDP From Public Administration 3922.11
INR Billion		 3958 4317 4469 4193 4860
GDP From Utilities 713.83
INR Billion		 693 690 700 763 777
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.52
percent		 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6
Employed Persons 29650.00
Thousand 		29909 30126 30155 30183 32200
Unemployed Persons 44.85
Million		 43.53 43.15 42.95 42.75 44.2
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.50
percent		 51.51 53.54 51.46 51.79 55.32
Population 1283.60
Million		 1293 1320 1300 1303 1340
Retirement Age Women 60.00
 60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 60.00
 60 60 60 60 60
Living Wage Family 17400.00
INR/Month		 18500 18500 19800 17400 19800
Living Wage Individual 11000.00
INR/Month		 13100 14000 10986 10984 18000
Wages 272.19
INR/Day		 362 362 386 386 400
Wages High Skilled 44000.00
INR/Month		 65500 65500 45500 46993 46500
Wages In Manufacturing 347.30
INR/Day		 450 450 470 470 500
Wages Low Skilled 10300.00
INR/Month		 16000 16000 17000 11695 18000
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.90
percent		 15.5 15.2 15.5 15.5 13.5
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.69
percent		 4.1 4.8 4.9 5 4.8
Consumer Price Index CPI 140.40
Index Points		 141 144 143 145 158
GDP Deflator 128.80
Index Points		 130 130 122 123 145
Producer Prices 120.00
Index Points		 119 120 121 124 133
Producer Prices Change 4.53
percent		 4.2 4 3.9 3.8 5.9
Export Prices 372.00
Index Points		 390 389 393 397 438
Import Prices 523.00
Index Points		 510 520 505 509 510
Food Inflation 0.29
percent		 4 4.2 3.9 2.77 4.7
Inflation Rate Mom 0.43
percent		 0.38 0.2 0.38 0.38 0.32
Cpi Housing Utilities 144.60
Index Points		 141 146 149 150 160
CPI Transportation 124.30
Index Points		 123 124 127 130 137
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.50
percent		 6.5 6.75 6.75 6.75 5.75
Cash Reserve Ratio 4.00
percent		 4 4 4 4 4
Interbank Rate 6.85
percent		 6.85 7.1 7.1 7.1 6.1
Money Supply M1 31578.50
INR Billion		 31310 31385 31274 31327 31326
Money Supply M2 32980.70
INR Billion		 33072 32924 32964 32965 32960
Money Supply M3 142070.49
INR Billion		 143013 145790 148540 151281 178398
Central Bank Balance Sheet 16937.76
INR Billions		 16701 16649 16595 16621 16617
Foreign Exchange Reserves 399280.00
USD Million		 398442 394659 392702 391693 390619
Loan Growth 13.50
percent		 12.86 12.5 12.86 12.86 12
Reverse Repo Rate 6.25
percent		 6.25 6.5 6.5 6.5 5.5
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -17390.00
USD Million		 -14300 -14900 -15477 -16017 -11100
Exports 27840.00
USD Million		 25000 24500 28086 27524 28900
Imports 45240.00
USD Million		 39300 39400 43562 43542 40000
Current Account -15807.13
USD Million		 -11479 -4100 -12127 -15027 -2460
Current Account to GDP -1.90
percent		 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2
External Debt 529673.00
USD Million		 546000 552000 559000 565000 626000
Terms of Trade 71.10
Index Points		 76.36 76.42 77.82 78.06 85.95
Capital Flows 17.43
USD Million		 3.36 20.8 8.1 8.64 7.93
Foreign Direct Investment 1981.00
USD Million		 3066 3085 3063 3067 3066
Remittances 12638.86
USD Million		 12573 12462 12536 12576 12546
Tourist Arrivals 806255.00
 917500 908400 830900 851700 762000
Gold Reserves 560.30
Tonnes		 560 560 560 560 560
Crude Oil Production 724.00
BBL/D/1K		 725 725 725 725 725
Terrorism Index 7.53
 7.45 7.59 7.58 7.57 7.57
Weapons Sales 56.00
USD Million		 44.93 46.27 45.53 44.8 35.62
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 68.70
percent		 69.2 69.2 69 69 70
Government Budget -3.53
percent of GDP		 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -3
Government Budget Value -5402.57
INR Billion		 -5010 -6263 -4878 -4569 -1220
Government Spending 3972.15
INR Billion		 3886 3499 3559 4246 3938
Government Revenues 3494.67
INR Billion		 6590 11200 15500 2350 12500
Fiscal Expenditure 8897.24
INR Billion		 11600 17463 20378 6919 18708
Military Expenditure 59757.10
USD Million		 60624 61245 61390 61535 65107
Government Spending To Gdp 12.74
percent of GDP		 12.59 12.29 12.25 12.21 12.44
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 59.70
Index Points		 56.5 57 57.4 57.49 59
Manufacturing PMI 51.70
 51.8 52.1 51.9 51.8 51.2
Services PMI 51.50
Index Points		 51 52.1 50.4 51.5 51.9
Industrial Production 6.60
percent		 3.7 4.1 4.8 4.5 6.5
Industrial Production Mom -1.30
percent		 -0.47 -0.17 0.3 0.55 0.87
Manufacturing Production 7.00
percent		 2.2 4.1 6.2 4.8 5.6
Changes in Inventories 237.18
INR Billion		 266 284 301 318 366
Car Production 274005.00
Units		 260114 218189 262936 230628 238720
Car Registrations 261146.00
 258982 254885 256224 255790 255896
Internet Speed 6492.06
KBps		 11003 11681 12339 12979 18445
IP Addresses 9378846.00
IP		 9484147 9485862 9489341 9489453 9490569
Mining Production 3.70
percent		 2.5 2.8 2.3 1.7 2.1
Steel Production 9000.00
Thousand Tonnes		 8897 8961 8933 8920 8929
Cement Production 25920.00
Thousands of Tonnes 		23425 27460 29690 26097 29791
Competitiveness Index 4.59
Points		 4.59 4.59 4.61 4.61 5
Competitiveness Rank 40.00
 40 40 38 38 39
Composite Pmi 51.90
 51.9 53 52.15 51.96 51.6
Corruption Index 40.00
Points		 40 40 40 40 42
Corruption Rank 81.00
 83 83 84 84 82
Ease of Doing Business 100.00
 128 128 116 116 116
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 97.00
Index Points		 99 101 100 96 97
Consumer Spending 18526.63
INR Billion		 17926 20649 20413 19805 23244
Disposable Personal Income 169623970.00
INR Million		 179611698 183284086 186581355 189878625 231000000
Personal Savings 26099.21
INR Billion		 27274 27600 28034 28468 32403
Bank Lending Rate 9.45
percent		 9.45 9.7 9.7 9.7 8.7
Households Debt To Gdp 10.90
percent of GDP		 11.28 11.27 11.44 11.42 11.85
Gasoline Prices 1.11
USD/Liter		 1.13 1.07 1.01 0.95 0.75
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 148.00
Index Points		 150 154 152 154 175
Construction Output 6.60
percent		 4.7 4.5 6.2 4.4 3
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.61
percent		 34.61 34.61 35 35 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.54
percent		 35.54 35.54 35.25 35 35.54
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent		 18 18 18 18 18
Social Security Rate 24.00
percent		 24 24 24 24 24
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00
percent		 12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00
percent		 12 12 12 12 12
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 18.62
celsius		 26.34 20.64 20.01 24.36 24.46
Precipitation 6.30
mm		 224 35.48 14.75 85.6 89.85