India | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for India including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the India economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.3 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 4.90 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.6 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.36 2 3 3.2 3.8 4.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 6.00 6 6 6 6 4.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -11449.80 -13000 -14800 -16500 -16200 -11100 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 69.50 69 69 69.2 69.2 70 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 64.24 65.58 66.23 66.88 67.53 74.67 [+]
Stock Market 31680.01 31000 30700 30400 30000 26600 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 6.53 6.62 6.68 6.75 6.81 7.53 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.3 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.10 7 7.1 6.9 6.7 5.7 percent [+]
GDP 2263.52 2340 2340 2350 2500 3100 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 32284.27 35000 36200 39600 39600 48500 INR Billion [+]
Gross National Product 12034713.00 11655294 11830552 11785169 11739785 11344072 INR Tens Of Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 9190.40 8850 9303 9364 9416 11000 INR Billion [+]
GDP per capita 1861.50 2000 2000 2500 2500 3500 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 6092.60 6100 6100 6500 6500 7000 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 4493.13 3302 5537 4546 4006 4130 INR Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 2197.52 2225 2290 2236 2304 2530 INR Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 5331.94 5140 5133 5134 5134 4620 INR Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 988.17 950 960 835 835 925 INR Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 3709.73 3708 3662 3707 3663 3668 INR Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 593.20 614 620 627 651 713 INR Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.90 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.6 percent [+]
Employed Persons 29650.00 30013 30240 30312 30385 32200 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 48.26 49.55 49.99 50.31 50.63 54.44 Million [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.50 51.51 52.45 51.46 51.79 55.32 percent [+]
Population 1299.00 1309 1311 1315 1317 1340 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Living Wage Family 19735.10 21400 22000 22500 22500 27000 INR/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 12109.80 12500 13000 13100 13100 18000 INR/Month [+]
Wages 272.19 284 289 292 296 356 INR/Day [+]
Wages High Skilled 50300.00 53100 54500 57000 60000 87500 INR/Month [+]
Wages In Manufacturing 347.30 382 400 402 404 425 INR/Day [+]
Wages Low Skilled 11900.00 14600 15000 15400 15700 18000 INR/Month [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.90 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 13.5 percent [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.36 2 3 3.2 3.8 4.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 132.10 133 134 137 139 158 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 124.60 129 133 135 139 150 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 113.90 196 200 205 205 250 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 1.88 1.9 3.1 3.4 4.1 5.9 percent [+]
Export Prices 300.00 309 310 310 311 359 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 518.00 532 531 500 495 510 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -0.29 0.7 1 1.1 2.3 3.3 percent [+]
CPI Transportation 116.50 120 122 125 128 151 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.53 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.32 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 6.00 6 6 6 6 4.75 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 6.15 6.3 6.3 6.13 6.13 5.5 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 26312.50 24841 25292 24973 25266 25186 INR Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 27846.47 27271 27376 27422 27377 27393 INR Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 128807.81 130615 133044 135492 137938 162152 INR Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 17519.08 18061 18076 17986 18027 18021 INR Billions [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 393449.00 398959 404526 407541 409173 411096 USD Million [+]
Loan Growth 6.20 6.8 7.9 5.86 5.85 7 percent [+]
Reverse Repo Rate 5.75 5.87 5.76 5.79 5.87 5.82 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade -11449.80 -13000 -14800 -16500 -16200 -11100 USD Million [+]
Exports 22543.80 25500 25000 24700 24600 28900 USD Million [+]
Imports 33993.60 38500 39800 41200 40800 40000 USD Million [+]
Current Account -3432.97 -3500 -4200 -3400 -5000 -2460 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -0.70 -1.25 -1.25 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 percent [+]
External Debt 471852.00 472000 461000 463000 459000 450000 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 57.90 66.3 68.77 69.57 70.37 66 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 23.54 16.27 5.19 6.52 5.53 8.02 USD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 2544.00 2518 2588 2581 2580 2580 USD Million [+]
Remittances 9533.93 9638 9617 9617 9626 9625 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 670000.00 768234 801013 762388 758675 762000 [+]
Gold Reserves 557.77 558 558 558 558 558 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 744.00 744 744 744 744 744 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 7.48 7.48 7.45 7.45 7.45 7.7 [+]
Weapons Sales 42.00 35.99 35.39 33.23 31.06 19.78 USD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 69.50 69 69 69.2 69.2 70 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.50 -3.4 -3.4 -3.3 -3.3 -2.5 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -4416.85 -4545 -4295 -4348 -4357 -1220 INR Billion [+]
Government Spending 3021.61 3983 3120 3347 3729 3520 INR Billion [+]
Government Revenues 2090.46 6779 6795 4964 5585 5680 INR Billion [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 6507.31 11731 10734 9493 10214 10127 INR Billion [+]
Military Expenditure 55630.70 56371 57619 57960 58300 61245 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 57.20 54.5 56 56.8 55.9 59 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 47.90 52.8 53.3 52.8 51.5 51.2 [+]
Services PMI 45.90 53 54 52.9 52 51.9 Index Points [+]
Industrial Production -0.10 3.1 3.4 4.2 4.4 6.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -10.30 0.3 -0.11 0.41 0.63 0.87 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -0.40 2.4 2.7 3.5 3.4 5.6 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 768.62 748 750 743 740 735 INR Billion [+]
Car Production 214942.00 243260 233783 237508 235952 236425 Units [+]
Car Registrations 195854.00 236356 225207 227868 227397 227430 Cars [+]
Cement Production 24591.00 23045 22961 23516 23633 23508 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.61 4.61 5.51 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 39.00 55 55 44 45 51 [+]
Composite Pmi 46.00 52.4 52.9 53 51.4 51.6 [+]
Corruption Index 40.00 38 38 40 40 42 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 79.00 79 76 79 80 72 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 130.00 129 129 133 132 126 [+]
Steel Production 7950.00 8061 8193 8157 8132 8145 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 0.40 4.1 4.3 3.9 5.9 2.1 percent [+]
Mni Business Sentiment 66.00 67 68 66.3 64.4 62 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 136.00 138 140 139 139 133 [+]
Consumer Spending 18483.00 19100 19700 19950 20000 21000 INR Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 154965120.00 163960285 168698694 172029365 175360036 231000000 INR Million [+]
Personal Savings 26099.21 27213 27498 27930 28362 31398 INR Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 9.55 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 7.5 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.02 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.86 USD/Liter [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 10.20 10.19 10.18 10.17 10.16 10.14 percent of GDP [+]
Mni Consumer Sentiment 112.70 113 112 112 112 113 [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Housing Index 238.00 249 251 252 254 264 Index Points [+]
Construction Output 0.40 3.6 4.4 3.9 3.3 3 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00 30 30 29 29 28 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.54 35.54 35.54 35.54 35.54 35.54 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 18.00 18 18 18 18 18 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 24.00 24 24 24 24 24 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00 12 12 12 12 12 percent [+]