Americas

Next week, attention in the US will center on the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of the year and the release of updated economic projections. Policymakers are widely expected to deliver a third consecutive rate cut on Wednesday, with markets assigning roughly an 87% probability to a 25bps reduction in the fed funds rate and pricing in a further two to three cuts next year as labor-market conditions continue to cool. A backlog of key US economic data, previously delayed by the government shutdown, will also draw focus. These include JOLTs job openings for September and October, with September openings forecast at 7.2 million. The September trade deficit is expected to widen to $65.5 billion, while wholesale inventories likely edged up 0.1%. Other notable releases include the Q3 Employment Cost Index, November’s federal budget statement, consumer inflation expectations, the NFIB Business Optimism Index, and weekly labor indicators initial jobless claims and the ADP employment report. On the earnings front, Broadcom and Oracle will report quarterly results. Elsewhere in the Americas, the Bank of Canada is expected to hold interest rates steady, while Brazil’s central bank will also meet to set monetary policy. Markets will additionally parse Canada’s September trade balance, Mexico’s CPI data, and a slate of Brazilian releases including inflation, business sentiment, and retail sales.

Eccles Building, Washington DC

It will be a busy week for the UK, with a data-heavy Friday offering fresh insights into October’s economic performance. GDP is expected to edge up 0.1%, after a 0.1% contraction in September, while industrial production is seen rebounding by 0.8% following a 2% drop in the previous month. Trade figures will also be in focus, and BoE Governor Bailey is scheduled to speak during the week. For the Eurozone block, no major data releases are planned, but investors will closely monitor comments from ECB President Lagarde. In Germany, industrial production likely fell 0.4% in October after a 1.3% increase in September, while the trade surplus is expected to remain near €15 billion. Italy’s industrial output is also projected to have declined by 0.3%, following a sharp 2.8% rise previously. Final inflation readings are due from Germany, France, Spain, and Sweden. In Switzerland, the central bank is expected to keep the key rate steady at 0% while in Turkey, policymakers are set to deliver a 100bps rate cut, marking its fourth consecutive reduction. Russia is also slated to publish inflation data.

City of London, UK

Next week, China will release a series of key economic indicators for November. Exports are expected to rise 3.8% yoy, marking a sharp rebound from the previous month’s 1.1% decline. Imports are also forecast to increase at a faster pace of 2.8%, likely pushing the trade surplus to a three-month high of $100.2 billion. CPI inflation is projected to rise 0.9% yoy, its strongest reading since February 2023, while PPI deflation is expected to remain unchanged at 2.1%. Monetary and credit data will also be closely watched for insights into financing conditions and policy effectiveness. In Japan, traders will monitor final Q3 GDP figures and the latest PPI print, which is expected to show a 0.3% increase, down from 0.4% in October. Additional releases include machine tool orders, final industrial production, wage data, the current account, and business sentiment indicators. In India, markets will focus on November inflation data. In Australia, the Reserve Bank is expected to hold its policy rate steady at 3.6%, while employment figures are likely to show the jobless rate edging up to 4.4% from 4.3%. Business confidence and final building permits data will also be released. Elsewhere in the region, the Philippine central bank is expected to cut rates by 50bps to 4.5%. Investors will also track unemployment data from South Korea, the Philippines, and Malaysia, as well as trade figures from Taiwan.

Beijing, China