US PCE Prices Edge Up 0.2%, Meeting Expectations

The US PCE price index rose 0.2% month-over-month in November 2025, the same as in October and in line with expectations. Prices for goods were up 0.2%, rebounding from a 0.1% fall in October while prices of services rose at a slower 0.2%, compared to 0.3% in October. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2%, also the same as in September and matching forecasts. Separately, prices for food stalled and cost for energy goods and services soared 1.9%, after a 0.7% rise drop. On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation accelerated to 2.8% from 2.7% as expected. Core PCE inflation also edged up to 2.8% from 2.7% in October and in line with expectations. The PCE index remains the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

The US PCE price index is expected to rise 0.2% month over month in November 2025, while the core PCE index which excludes food and energy, is also forecast to increase by 0.2%, compared with gains of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, in September. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis is also expected to release October data alongside the November figures as it works to normalize the economic release schedule following last year’s government shutdown. On a year-on-year basis, both headline and core PCE inflation are projected at 2.8%, hovering near 2024 highs. The PCE price index remains the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

The US PCE price index rose 0.3% month-over-month in September 2025, the same as in August and in line with expectations. Prices for goods jumped 0.5%, much higher than 0.1% in the previous period while prices of services rose at a slower 0.2%, compared to 0.3% in August. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2%, also the same as in August and matching forecasts. Separately, prices for food increased 0.4%, after a 0.5% gain in the previous month and cost for energy goods and services soared 1.7%, after a 0.8% rise. On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation accelerated to 2.8%, the highest since April 2024, from 2.7% in August and matching expectations. On the other hand, core PCE inflation slowed to 2.8% from 2.9% in August and compared to forecasts it would remain at 2.9%. The PCE index remains the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The release of the September report was delayed by over a month as a result of the government shutdown.