US Non Farm Payrolls Well Below Forecasts

The US economy added 178K jobs in March 2026, the most since December 2024, following a revised decline of 133K in February, when a strike in the healthcare sector weighed on employment. The figure came in well above market expectations of 60K. Job gains were concentrated in healthcare (76K), mostly ambulatory health care services (54K), reflecting an increase of 35K in offices of physicians as workers returned from a strike. Construction added 26K jobs following weather-related declines during the winter. Transportation and warehousing created 21K jobs, manufacturing added 15K and employment in social assistance continued its upward trend (14K). On the other hand, federal government employment continued to decline (-18K) and declines were also seen in financial activities (-15K). The change in payrolls for January was revised up by 34K to 160K, and the change for February was revised down by 41K to -133K. Employment combined for the two months is 7K lower than early reported.

The US economy likely added 60,000 jobs in March 2026, partially reversing the 92,000 decline recorded in February, when a strike weighed on employment. Around 31,000 striking nurses at Kaiser Permanente in California and Hawaii returned to work in late February, which should support a rebound in healthcare payrolls in March. Employment growth is also expected to recover in construction, as well as in leisure and hospitality, following weather-related declines during the winter. The jobs report is also projected to show the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%. Meanwhile, wages likely increased by 0.3% month-on-month, after rising 0.4% in February. On an annual basis, wage growth is expected to ease slightly to 3.7%, from 3.8% in the previous month.

The US economy shed 92K jobs in February 2026, the most in four months, following a downwardly revised 126K rise in January and much worse than forecasts of a 59K gain. Employment in health care decreased by 28K in February, reflecting strike activity. Offices of physicians lost 37K jobs while hospitals added 12K. Employment in information (-11K) and federal government (-10K) continued to trend down. Declines were also seen in employment at transportation and warehousing (-11K) and manufacturing (-12K). In contrast, employment in social assistance continued its upward trend (9K), driven by individual and family services (12K). The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised down by 65K, from 48K to -17K, and the change for January was revised down by 4K from 130K to 126K. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined is 69K lower than previously reported. Payroll employment changed little on net in 2025.