US Job Growth Expected to Cool in July

2025-08-01 07:22 By Joana Taborda 1 min. read

US nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 110K in July 2025, marking the smallest increase in five months and a slowdown from June’s gain of 147K.

The unemployment rate is projected to edge up to 4.2% from 4.1% while wage growth likely increased to 0.3% from 0.2%.

Overall, the report is expected to point to a continued cooling in the labor market, as uncertainty surrounding tariffs, trade, and immigration policies leads many employers to adopt a more cautious hiring stance.

The figures would also be below the three-month average gain of 150K, but would continue to underscore a fundamentally resilient labor market, with monthly payroll gains in the 100K-170K range, sufficient to keep pace with growth in the working-age population.



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