Fed Split on Need for Rate Cuts: Minutes

2025-11-19 19:12 By Joana Taborda 1 min. read

Several Federal Reserve officials favored lowering the target range for the federal funds rate in October, though many could have supported leaving rates unchanged, and some opposed a reduction, minutes from the last FOMC meeting showed.

When discussing the near-term path of monetary policy, participants expressed sharply divergent views on what decision would be most appropriate at the December meeting.

Most believed further downward adjustments to the target range would likely be warranted, though several of them emphasized that another 25bps cut might not be appropriate in December.

A number of participants judged that an additional rate cut in December could be suitable if the economy evolved broadly as expected over the intermeeting period.

Many others suggested that, under their outlooks, keeping the target range unchanged for the remainder of the year would likely be appropriate.

The Fed lowered the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% at its October 2025 meeting.



News Stream
Warsh Comments Boost Bets on Fed Rate Hold in October
Fed Chair Warsh refrained from signalling the outcome of this month’s FOMC meeting, but said hotter-than-expected inflation had not altered his assessment of the US economy, prompting traders to further scale back expectations of an October rate hike. Speaking at an IMF summit in Bangkok, Chair Warsh said that “I don’t prejudge meetings. I don’t believe in saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year", but added that "the world has broadly conformed with our expectations”. He also reiterated his concerns over persistent inflation, noting that central banks in the US and elsewhere recognised that price pressures remained uncomfortably elevated. The Fed raised the fed funds rate by 25 basis points 3.75%-4% in September 2026, marking its first increase since 2023. All 19 policymakers backed the move, while a majority also projected a further hike before year-end.
2026-10-16
Fed Likely to Raise Rates Again This Year
Most Fed policymakers judged that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year-end. However, they emphasized that they approached each meeting with an open mind and that future decisions would depend on incoming economic data, its implications for the outlook, and the balance of risks, according to the minutes of the September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting. Minutes also showed that all policymakers supported raising the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bps to 3.75%-4%. Participants generally emphasized that inflation remained elevated while the labor market appeared to be near full employment, with some signs of strengthening, and that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace. Furthermore, almost all participants assessed that, while inflation risks were tilted to the upside, risks to the labor market had diminished and were now broadly balanced.
2026-10-07
Fed Raises Rates for 1st Time Since 2023
The Fed unanimously raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25bps to 3.75%-4.00% in September 2026 as expected, marking the first rate hike since 2023. Policymakers noted that inflation remains elevated, and the move aims to support a more timely return to the 2% target. Updated projections showed that 16 of 18 officials see the possibility of at least one more 25bps rate hike later this year with four penciling in two additional rate increases. Chair Warsh again declined to submit his forecasts. Meanwhile, the GDP is seen expanding at a slightly faster pace in 2026 (2.3% vs 2.2% in the June projection) and 2027 (2.4% vs 2.3%). PCE inflation is seen higher this year (3.7% vs 3.6%) but the forecast for 2027 was kept at 2.3%. Core inflation is also seen up in 2026 (3.4% vs 3.3%) but the forecast was left at 2.5% for 2027. The unemployment rate is now projected at 4.1% in both 2026 and 2027, down from the previous forecast of 4.3% for both years.
2026-09-16