US 10-Year Yield Holds Decline

2026-04-15 02:22 By Jam Kaimo Samonte 1 min. read

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note traded around 4.25% on Wednesday after sliding for two straight sessions, as hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Middle East conflict allayed inflation concerns.

The US and Iran are reportedly preparing for a second round of peace talks before the current two-week ceasefire expires, even as heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to amplify global energy risks.

Oil prices pulled back sharply, further reducing concerns about inflationary pressures and the need for additional central bank tightening.

The Federal Reserve is now widely expected to keep rates unchanged through the year, with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noting that rate cuts could be delayed until 2027 depending on how long elevated oil prices persist.

Meanwhile, investors are set to watch upcoming data including import and export price indexes, as well as the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index.



News Stream
US 10-Year Yield Holds Steady
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The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note swung around 4.6% on Monday amid fresh signs of progress in US-Iran negotiations. Iranian media reported that Washington had proposed a temporary waiver of oil sanctions until a final deal is reached, while separate reports suggested Tehran could accept a long-term freeze on its nuclear program. Still, benchmark Treasury yields remained near one-year highs, supported by persistently elevated oil prices that continue to fuel global inflation pressures and constrain central banks’ ability to ease monetary policy. In some cases, policymakers may even need to tighten further. Markets currently expect the Fed to leave the fed funds rate unchanged through year-end, though the implied probability of an additional 25bps rate hike has risen to around 40%. Investors also await the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes and flash US PMI data for further signals on the direction of monetary policy and the broader economic outlook.
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