Treasury Yields Lower as Oil Prices Sink

2026-04-08 13:34 By Joana Taborda 1 min. read

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell about 5bps to 4.25% on Wednesday, reaching its lowest level in roughly three weeks.

The decline followed news of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, which triggered a sharp drop in oil prices, easing concerns about an inflationary spiral and boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates this year.

Markets now see around a 60% chance of a rate cut by year-end, compared with almost no chance at the start of the week.

Before the conflict began, markets had priced in more than two rate reductions.

As part of the temporary truce, Iran said it would allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, helping to alleviate concerns over energy supply disruptions.

Investors will also scrutinize the FOMC minutes later in the day for further insight into the Fed’s policy outlook, while the release of US March CPI data on Friday is expected to provide additional clues on price pressures linked to the ongoing conflict.



News Stream
US 10-Year Yield Holds Firm on Hawkish Fed Bets
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note hovered near 5% during Thursday’s post-holiday session, holding onto gains from earlier in the week amid growing expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes. The rise was fueled by stronger-than-expected October inflation data and increasingly hawkish signals from Fed policymakers. Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that a 50-basis-point increase in December could be justified, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan supported at least two more 25-basis-point hikes as inflationary pressures persist. Markets are currently pricing in approximately a 91% probability of a rate increase next month, with further tightening in January and potentially April also being considered. Investors are now awaiting Thursday’s initial jobless claims and existing home sales reports for further indications of inflationary trends, labor market conditions and the broader economic outlook.
2026-11-12
US 10-Year Yield Rebounds Past 5%
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose past the 5% threshold, rebounding from near-two-month lows after hot inflation data consolidated bets that the Fed will deliver multiple additional rate hikes in the current cycle. Both headline and core consumer prices rose more than expected in October, adding to evidence that soaring energy prices are being transmitted into core sectors of a resilient economy. The data followed hawkish comments from Fed Governor Waller, who said he would support a 50bps increase in December if inflation continued to accelerate. Also, Dallas Fed President Logan supported at least two additional 25bps increases. Treasury yields of all maturities had already rebounded this week as markets regained risk sentiment following a brief flight to safety after the Democratic Party gained control of Congress, driving markets to reconsider advances in the tech sector that has carried investment in the US economy. US bond markets will be closed on Wednesday for a holiday.
2026-11-10
US 10-Year Yield Steady Ahead of Inflation Data
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was little changed around 4.88% on Tuesday, holding near two-month lows as investors awaited the October CPI report, with both headline and core inflation expected to ease amid stabilizing energy prices. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said on Monday that the Federal Reserve should approach monetary policy adjustments “with care,” as persistent inflation remains its primary concern. Markets are currently pricing in an 84% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, up considerably from approximately 74% a week earlier following last week’s stronger-than-expected employment data. Meanwhile, inflationary concerns eased as oil prices extended their decline amid growing optimism over a potential US-Iran peace agreement. President Donald Trump expressed confidence that the conflict in Iran was nearing an end following discussions with Qatar’s prime minister.
2026-11-10