Treasury Yields Fall on Economic Worries

2026-03-30 12:15 By Joana Taborda 1 min. read

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell about 10bps to 4.34% on Monday, easing from the July 2025 highs reached on Friday, as investors focused on developments in the Middle East and their implications for growth and the monetary policy outlook.

Oil prices continued to climb to fresh highs not seen since 2022, reinforcing expectations that higher energy costs could weigh on the economy and limit the Fed’s room to raise interest rates.

As a result, the probability of a Fed rate hike in 2026 dropped to around 20%, from roughly 35% at the end of last week.

Meanwhile, yields extended the decline after Fed Chair Powell said that President Trump’s tariffs resulted in a one-time price bump and that the central bank has little control over supply shocks such as the war-driven surge in oil prices.

Attention also turns to a busy economic calendar, with key releases including the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the jobs report, which should offer further insight into the health of the economy.



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