US 10-Year Yield Holds Above 4.2%

2026-03-18 18:25 By Andre Joaquim 1 min. read

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note remained above the 4.2% mark on Wednesday, trimming its two-session pullback and holding most of its surge since the start of March amid signs that the FOMC is heeding to inflationary risks to the US economy.

The Federal Reserve held its rates unchanged, as expected, but policymakers raised their projections of both core and headline inflation, in addition to an improved outlook in GDP growth.

Pro-inflationary risks were magnified by a hot PPI reading for February and more increases in energy prices following attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure.

Likewise, a greater share of FOMC members signaled that no rate cuts are required this year in their baseline scenario, although concerns of a softening labor market drove other members to opt for an outlook of more accommodative policy.

Rate traders remained split between one and two rate cuts this year.



News Stream
US 10-Year Yield Pulls Back
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to 4.35% on Friday, 10bps below the nine-month high two sessions earlier as the pullback in energy costs limited the pro-inflationary outlook. Iran delivered a new proposal for the US to consider after President Trump rejected previous concessions and pledged to maintain the naval blockade, that together with Iran's threats, has suspended energy and goods exports from the Middle East. Energy prices eased to soften concerns of broader inflation, although the latest economic data still aligned with a hawkish outlook for the Federal Reserve. ISM Manufacturing prices soared to a four year high and new orders increased faster in April, and core PCE prices accelerated in March, while the latest jobless claims reading reflected strengthening in an already-robust the US labor market. This was after three hawkish dissents in the Fed's last meeting signaled added caution to inflationary risks by the rate-setting committee.
2026-05-01
US 10-Year Yield Holds Decline
The US 10-Year Treasury Yield held below 4.45% on Friday after declining in the prior session, as easing oil prices and a fresh round of economic data prompted investors to reassess interest rate expectations. Crude oil retreated on what appeared to be a technical pullback, though it remains on track for a second consecutive weekly gain amid fading hopes for a US–Iran peace deal and expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed in the near term. Treasury yields have been trending higher since the onset of the Middle East conflict, driven by concerns that elevated energy prices could reignite inflation and force major central banks to keep rates higher for longer or potentially tighten further. On the economic front, recent data showed US consumption slowed in the first quarter, although strong artificial intelligence-related investment helped sustain a 2% annualized GDP expansion.
2026-05-01
US 10-Year Yield Eases from 9-Month High
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell below 4.4% on Thursday after testing nine-month highs at 4.45% last session as benchmark energy prices eased off their peaks, while markets assessed a batch of economic data. Long-term yields eased as oil and product prices whipsawed from their peaks, despite the impasse between Iran and the US that prolonged the suspension of energy exports from the key region. The latest data indicated that consumption in the US slowed in the first quarter, although surging AI investment supported the GDP enough for a 2% annualized expansion. Still, the 10-year yield remained sharply higher this year as inflation threats on a robust economy erased bets of a Fed cut this year. Core PCE prices accelerated in March and initial jobless claims plunged to the lowest in nearly 50 years. This was after Fed Presidents dissented against an easing bias in the FOMC's rate hold yesterday.
2026-04-30