US 10-Year Yield Extends Surge

2025-10-30 13:55 By Andre Joaquim 1 min. read

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose above 4.1%, gaining about 10 bps so far this week amid hawkish signals by the FOMC.

The Federal Reserve cut its rates by 25bps yesterday, as expected, but Chairman Powell downplayed the certainty for another rate cut in December, reflecting policymakers' concern that core inflation has stubbornly remained above the 3% threshold.

This was also echoed by Kansas City Fed's Schmid dissenting with a vote for a hold.

Meanwhile, the Fed's balance sheet runoff will end at the start of December, rolling over the entirety of maturing Treasury securities and reinvesting its MBS assets into Treasury bills, aiming to temper recent stress in overnight funding markets.

Rate futures continued to expect three additional rate cuts by July of next year.

Earlier concerns of a slowing economy, the US government shutdown, and bets of a steady balance sheet for the Fed drove the 10-year yield to drop to a one-year low of 3.95% on October 22nd.



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