US 10-Year Yield Holds Above 4%

2025-10-20 02:47 By Jam Kaimo Samonte 1 min. read

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note held above 4% on Monday after rebounding in the prior session, as sentiment toward the regional banking sector stabilized following brief credit concerns.

Signs of easing US-China trade tensions also lent support, with President Donald Trump noting that his proposed 100% retaliatory tariffs on Chinese goods would be unsustainable.

Investors now await the September CPI report due Friday, expected to show inflation remains elevated, with traders closely watching given the ongoing data blackout from the government shutdown.

On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points next week, followed by another move in December and possibly three more in 2026, amid growing labor market risks and subdued inflation pressures despite tariff-related uncertainty.



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US 10-Year Yield Holds Decline
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held around 4.11% on Tuesday after reaching as high as 4.21% in the previous session, as retreating oil prices eased fears of resurgent inflation. The US oil benchmark fell back below $90 a barrel after President Donald Trump signaled that the Iran war is nearing its end, while unveiling plans to keep oil prices down. G7 finance ministers also said the group “stands ready” to release oil from strategic reserves if needed, although no action has been taken yet. Easing inflation concerns revived expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in July and September, with markets pricing in around two 25 basis point reductions this year. Looking ahead, investors await the February CPI report on Wednesday and January’s PCE price index on Friday for further clues on inflation trends, though neither is expected to fully reflect the impact of the Iran war.
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Treasury Yields Little Changed
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was little changed at 4.13% on Monday, after rising to as much as 4.21% earlier in the session, as oil prices pared some gains and moved back below $100 per barrel. Despite the slight relief, concerns about an energy-driven surge in inflation that could prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates continue to weigh on investor sentiment. The conflict shows little sign of easing, with major Middle Eastern producers including Kuwait, Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, cutting output amid limited storage capacity and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Reflecting these pressures, traders now expect only one 25bps rate cut from the Fed this year, most likely in September, compared with two cuts expected just a week ago. Investors are also looking ahead to a busy week of economic data, including the CPI report, the PCE price index, and JOLTS job openings, which should provide further insight into the strength of the US economy.
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US 10-Year Treasury Yield Continues to Rise
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged up to 4.15% on Monday, its highest level in about a month, after briefly reaching 4.21% during the session as investors believe rising inflation expectations linked to the Middle East conflict could prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates. The conflict shows little sign of easing, with energy markets surging again and oil prices climbing above $100 a barrel after major Middle Eastern producers Kuwait, Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia cut output, intensifying concerns about rising inflation. Reflecting these pressures, traders now expect only one 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed this year, most likely in September, compared with expectations for two cuts just a week ago. Investors are also looking ahead to a busy week of economic data, including the CPI report, PCE price index, and JOLTS job openings, which should provide further insight into the strength of the US economy.
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