US GDP Growth Revised Up to 4.4%

The US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.4% in Q3 2025, slightly above the initial estimate of 4.3% and marking the strongest GDP growth since Q3 2023. The upward revision primarily reflected stronger exports and a smaller drag from inventories. Robust growth was driven by firm consumer spending, a rebound in exports, and higher government outlays. Consumer spending rose 3.5%, unchanged from the initial estimate and the fastest pace this year, accelerating from 2.5% in Q2. Exports surged 9.6%, revised up from 8.8% and rebounding from a 1.8% decline in the prior quarter while imports fell 4.4%, extending the decline seen in Q2. Government spending recovered (2.2% vs -0.1%), while the drag from private inventories eased significantly, subtracting just 0.12 percentage points from growth compared with 3.44 percentage points in Q2. Meanwhile, fixed investment increased 0.8%, below the initial estimate of 1% and slowing sharply from 4.4% in Q2.

The GDP in the US advanced an annualized 4.3% in Q3 2025, the most in two years compared to 3.8% in Q2, and forecasts of 3.3%, the delayed estimate showed. The growth mainly reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending. Consumer spending rose 3.5%, the most so far this year (vs 2.5% in Q2), led by both goods (3.1% vs 2.2%) and services (3.7% vs 2.6%), mostly health care, international travel, information processing equipment and prescription drugs. Fixed investment continued to rise although at a slower pace (1% vs 4.4%), supported by equipment (5.4% vs 8.5%) and intellectual property products (5.4% vs 15%) while investment in structures (-6.3% vs -7.5%) and residential (-5.1% vs -5.1%) continued to decline. Also, exports rebounded sharply (8.8% vs -1.8%) due to capital and nondurable goods and imports declined further (-4.7% vs -29.3%). Government spending recovered (2.2% vs -0.1%) and the drag from private inventories was smaller (-0.22 pp vs -3.44 pp).

The US economy expanded an annualized 3.8% in Q2 2025, much higher than 3.3% in the second estimate, and marking the strongest performance since Q3 2023. The stronger-than-anticipated figure primarily reflected an upward revision to consumer spending. PCE rose 2.5% (vs 1.6% in the second estimate), led by a bigger revision for services (2.6% vs 1.2%) while spending on goods remained robust (2.2% vs 2.4%). Fixed investment was also revised higher (4.4% vs 3.3% in the second estimate), including equipment (8.5% vs 7.4%), intellectual property products (15% vs 12.8%) and structures (-7.5% vs -8.9%). Residential investment however, fell more (-5.1% vs -4.7%). Also, government consumption shrank slightly less (-0.1% vs -0.2%). On the other hand, the contribution from net trade was revised lower, as exports declined at a faster pace (-1.8% vs -1.3%) and imports fell 29.3% (vs -29.8%). In addition, the drag from private inventories worsened (-3.44 pp vs -3.29 pp).