US GDP Likely Bounced Back in Q2

2025-07-30 07:08 By Joana Taborda 1 min. read

The US economy likely grew at an annualized rate of 2.4% in the second quarter of 2025, rebounding from a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter which was the first decline in three years.

The Q1 downturn was driven by a surge in imports, as businesses and consumers rushed to stockpile goods ahead of expected price increases following a series of tariff announcements.

According to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate, second-quarter growth is expected to be supported by personal consumption, government spending and investment in intellectual property.

In addition, imports likely sank nearly 25% and exports are seen falling much less, leaving the contribution from net trade positive.

On the other hand, investment in residential and nonresidential structures, along with equipment, is expected to drag on growth.

In its June projections, the Fed lowered its US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4%, down from 1.7% in March.



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