Dollar Rises Further as War With Iran Escalates

The dollar index topped 99.6 on Thursday, extending gains for a fourth consecutive session and reaching the highest level since November 2024 amid escalating conflict with Iran. The new supreme leader of Iran said the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed, adding that the war would continue “out of necessity” and that other fronts were being considered. Meanwhile, the surge in oil prices has continued, further fueling expectations of higher inflation. Yields are also being pressured by concerns over the fiscal outlook, particularly amid rising defense spending. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep the fed funds rate unchanged next week, though attention will focus on the updated dot plot and policymakers’ expectations for the remainder of the year. Markets are currently pricing in only one 25bps rate hike, likely in September. The greenback strengthened against all major pairs.

The dollar index traded higher at around 99.4 on Thursday, extending gains for a fourth consecutive session and hovering near two-month highs. The war involving Iran continues to escalate, with no signs of a near-term resolution. As a result, oil prices have continued to rise, further fueling expectations of higher inflation. Recent economic data showed initial jobless claims slightly below forecasts at 212,000, broadly in line with readings from previous weeks, while the US trade deficit narrowed in January. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep the fed funds rate unchanged next week, though attention will focus on the updated dot plot and policymakers’ expectations for the remainder of the year. Markets are currently pricing in only one 25-basis-point rate hike, likely in September.

The dollar index was trading near 99.5 on Thursday, inching higher for the third straight session as oil prices resumed their rally, heightening inflationary risks and reducing the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Oil surged for a second day as the prospect of a protracted Iran war overshadowed a coordinated release of oil reserves by major economies, with the IEA approving its largest-ever release of 400 million barrels. Iraq also halted operations at its oil terminals after two oil tankers were targeted in Iraqi waters, highlighting elevated supply risks in the region. On the data front, February inflation came in line with forecasts, showing stable but above-target CPI. However, the full impact of the energy surge from the conflict is yet to be reflected. The Fed is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate steady next week, with traders pricing in only one 25 bps cut, possibly in September.