Dollar Rallies on Surging Oil Prices

The dollar index edged above 100 on Friday after stronger than expected US jobs data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000 in March, the strongest gain since late 2024, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%, partly reflecting a decline in labor force participation. The data pointed to a stabilizing labor market even as the Iran conflict began. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remained in focus as President Donald Trump escalated rhetoric against Iran, threatening strikes on key infrastructure, while reports indicated further attacks across the Gulf region. Rising energy prices are adding to inflation concerns, keeping markets cautious. Trading activity is likely to remain subdued due to the Good Friday holiday, with US equity markets closed and bond trading on a shortened schedule.

The dollar index held steady at 100 in thin trading on Friday as investors awaited the March jobs report, due later in the day, for fresh clues on the economy and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. A marked weakening in the labor market could revive expectations for Fed rate cuts later this year, which have been largely priced out as surging oil prices, driven by the Middle East war, reignited inflation concerns. On Thursday, President Donald Trump vowed more aggressive strikes on Iran over the next two to three weeks, dashing hopes for a quick end to the conflict and renewing demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, a report indicated that Iran is working on a protocol with Oman to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, providing some relief. The dollar is on track for a modest weekly decline.

The dollar index moved back to 100 after reaching 100.2 early in the session, as traders assess the latest developments in the Middle East. A report that Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz offered some relief. However, volatility is expected to persist amid escalating rhetoric from President Trump and as crude prices remain near 2022 highs. Oil prices surged following Trump’s pledge to take more aggressive action against Iran. High energy prices are fuelling worries about an inflation spiral which could prompt the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance. Earlier this week, Fed Chair Powell said officials may need to respond to the economic effects of the conflict, though not at this stage, adding that current policy is well positioned to allow a wait-and-see approach. Markets currently expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged this year.