Dollar Falls on Fresh Tariff Fears

The dollar index climbed above 97.8 on Tuesday after coming under pressure in the previous session, as investors continued to assess US trade uncertainty. In the latest developments, global logistics giant FedEx filed a lawsuit seeking a full refund after the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs. Over the weekend, Trump threatened to lift global tariffs from 10% to 15% in response to the ruling and cautioned that countries that “play games” with existing trade agreements could face steeper duties. The shifting policy backdrop has raised fears that current trade deals may unravel, though major trading partners have so far honored their agreements with Washington. On the geopolitical front, markets remain focused on renewed talks between the US and Iran scheduled for Thursday. Elsewhere, Japanese media claimed that US authorities led the rate checks conducted last month to prop up the yen.

The dollar index held at the 97.8 mark on Monday, paring its early pullback to remain near the highest in one month as global markets reassessed whether developments to US trade policy will significantly alter the balance of payments. President Trump raised his fresh section 122 tariffs to 15% over the weekend after the Supreme Court struck down the series of country-targeting tariffs that were passed under IEEPA 10 months ago. However, the President refrained from elaborating on whether the measure would alter current trade deals agreed by the administration, while Congress is unlikely to extend the measures past this Q4. Pullbacks in G10 currencies also aided the greenback. Slower wage growth in the UK pressured the pound sterling, and declines in gauges of underlying inflation weakened the Canadian dollar. The supply of dollars is also seen capped on incoming Fed Chair Warsh's preference on a small Fed balance sheet.

The dollar index fell below 97.5 on Monday, trimming last week’s gains after President Donald Trump said he plans to raise global tariffs from 10% to 15%, following a decision by the Supreme Court to strike down his “reciprocal” tariffs. Meanwhile, Europe’s trade chief said Sunday he would propose suspending ratification of a trade agreement with the US, while India delayed negotiations to finalize an interim deal with Washington. Still, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said trade arrangements with key partners, including China, the EU, Japan and South Korea, would remain in force. Markets initially welcomed Friday’s court ruling, but mounting uncertainty over Trump’s next steps overshadowed any potential benefits from lower tariff rates and possible reimbursements. The dollar typically weakens during periods of heightened policy uncertainty in Washington, as foreign investors scale back exposure to US assets.