US Dollar Index Holds Near 1-Month Low

2025-12-05 16:02 By Andre Joaquim 1 min. read

The dollar index held below 99 on Friday, a one-month low, as the prospect of more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve contrasted with those from other central banks.

Rate futures maintained the consensus of a 25bps cut by the Fed in its December meeting, bolstered after a series of pessimistic labor market data and dovish comments from FOMC Governor Waller and New York Fed President Williams.

Data from the ADP unexpectedly pointed to a reduction in private payrolls during November, while outstanding unemployment claims held near four-year highs.

In the meantime, the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey reflected strong pessimism for labor expectations, despite the slight improvement, while the lack of upside surprises for September's PCE price index favored the argument for dovish FOMC members.

Conversely, ECB policymakers showed some consensus that rates will remain stable in the meantime on inflation risks, while the BoJ signaled it will deliver a hike this month.



News Stream
Dollar Ticks Higher Ahead of Key Inflation Data
The dollar index edged toward 99.9 on Wednesday, posting modest gains as investors braced for key inflation readings that will likely influence the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. The consumer price index report is due later today, followed by producer inflation data on Thursday. Markets remain divided over whether the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in September after keeping them unchanged in July, with rising oil prices reinforcing a hawkish bias. On Tuesday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also said the central bank is more concerned about inflation remaining too high than potential weakness in the labor market. On the geopolitical front, investors assessed the prospects of a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after Pakistan’s defense minister said Washington and Tehran are “close to some sort of arrangement.”
2026-08-12
US Dollar Holds Rebound
The dollar index was at the 99.8 mark on Tuesday, holding the rebound from the two-month low of 99.5 on Friday amid fresh pressure on the yen, while markets further assessed the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. Markets mounted on short positions on the Japanese currency after the US Treasury completed its joint intervention on the foreign exchange market with Tokyo. Treasury Secretary Bessent had bought yen with euros in the Exchange Stabilization Fund to prevent Japan from selling more US bonds to defend their currency, but mountain fiscal pressures for Japan and the surge in US long yields drove the dollar to rebound against the yen. Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Hammack reiterated her view that a Fed hike is appropriate to combat inflation ahead of tomorrow's CPI report. The data is expected to show that core inflation measures should slow for a second month. Still, the elevated levels of wholesale energy commodities challenge the argument for a hold.
2026-08-11
Dollar Steadies as Traders Weigh Fed Outlook
The dollar index steadied around 99.7 on Tuesday, holding gains from the previous session as investors continued to assess the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy ahead of key US inflation readings following a weak July jobs report. The closely watched consumer price index report is due on Wednesday, followed by producer inflation data on Thursday. Markets are currently pricing in around a 51% chance of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September, up from 44% a day earlier. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said several rate increases may be needed to bring inflation back down to the central bank’s 2% target. Meanwhile, uncertainty persisted over a potential deal between the US and Iran to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, keeping markets wary of inflation and the outlook for interest rates.
2026-08-11