US Core Inflation Rate Slightly Below Forecasts

The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, stood at 2.6% in December 2025, the lowest since March 2021, matching November's reading. Figures came slightly below market expectations of 2.7%. Prices slowed mostly for used cars and trucks (1.6% vs 3.6% in November) and household furnishings and operations (4% vs 4.6%). Meanwhile, the heavyweight shelter index increased 3.2%, after a 3% rise in the prior month. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include medical care (3.2% vs 2.9%), recreation (3% vs 1.8%), and personal care (3.7% vs 3.3%).

The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, fell to 2.6% in November 2025, the lowest since March 2021 and below market expectations of 3%. The shelter index increased 3% over the last year. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include medical care (+2.9%), household furnishings and operations (+4.6%), recreation (+1.8%), and used cars and trucks (+3.6%). The BLS did not collect data for October 2025 as a result of the 43-day government shutdown. As a result, figures for October were missing and the monthly rates for November were not released.

The annual core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, ticked down to 3% in September 2025 from 3.1% in each of the previous two months, coming just below analysts' estimates of 3.1%. The heavyweight shelter index rose 3.6% over the last year, the same pace as in the prior month. Other indexes such as used cars and trucks (5.1% vs 6% in August) and medical care (3.3% vs 3.4%) posted smaller increases. On a monthly basis, core consumer prices rose by 0.2% from the previous month in September, slowing from the 0.3% in the August and July, and slightly under market expectations of a 0.3% increase.