US Consumer Sentiment Revised Lower in March

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted 11% to a historic low of 47.6 in early April 2026, far below both market expectations of 52 and last year’s level by 9%. Nearly all surveys (98%) were conducted before the temporary cease-fire announcement, underscoring the Iran conflict’s immediate impact on confidence. Sentiment declined across all demographics, as well as every index component, signaling a broad-based drop. One-year business condition expectations crashed 20%, while assessments of personal finances fell 11%, with consumers citing rising prices and shrinking asset values as key concerns. Buying conditions for durables and vehicles deteriorated further, again due to high costs linked to the war. Year-ahead inflation expectations spiked to 4.8% from 3.8% in March, the largest one-month jump since April 2025, while long-term inflation expectations rose to 3.4%, the highest since November 2025.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell sharply to 53.3 in March 2026, down from the preliminary estimate of 55.5 and below February’s 56.6. This places sentiment near record lows observed at the end of 2025, with declines spanning all age groups and political affiliations. Households with middle and higher incomes, as well as those with stock wealth, experienced the steepest drops in confidence. The downturn reflects the impact of rising gas prices and financial market volatility, both exacerbated by the ongoing Iran conflict. The short-term economic outlook plunged 14%, while expectations for personal finances over the next year dropped 10%. However, long-term expectations saw only modest declines, hinting that consumers may not anticipate the current challenges to persist indefinitely. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.8%, the largest monthly increase since April 2025, while long-term expectations edged down to 3.2%.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 55.5 in March 2026, down from 56.6 in February but slightly above market expectations of 55, according to preliminary data. The reading marked the lowest level in three months, as households reacted to the military conflict involving the US and Iran. Higher gasoline prices had the most immediate effect on consumers, although the broader pass-through to other prices remains uncertain. A wide range of respondents across income groups, age brackets, and political affiliations reported weaker expectations for their personal finances, which fell 7.5% nationwide. Year-ahead inflation expectations held at 3.4%, ending six months of declines, while long-term expectations edged down to 3.2% from 3.3%. The survey was conducted between February 17 and March 9, with survey director Joanne Hsu noting sentiment weakened and inflation expectations rose following the start of the US military conflict with Iran on February 28.