US Consumer Sentiment Falls Amid Iran Conflict Concerns

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 55.5 in March 2026, down from 56.6 in February but slightly above market expectations of 55, according to preliminary data. The reading marked the lowest level in three months, as households reacted to the military conflict involving the US and Iran. Higher gasoline prices had the most immediate effect on consumers, although the broader pass-through to other prices remains uncertain. A wide range of respondents across income groups, age brackets, and political affiliations reported weaker expectations for their personal finances, which fell 7.5% nationwide. Year-ahead inflation expectations held at 3.4%, ending six months of declines, while long-term expectations edged down to 3.2% from 3.3%. The survey was conducted between February 17 and March 9, with survey director Joanne Hsu noting sentiment weakened and inflation expectations rose following the start of the US military conflict with Iran on February 28.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised down to 56.6 in February 2026 from a preliminary 57.3, little changed from January’s 56.4. Still, it marked the highest reading since August 2025, following historically weak levels in recent months. All major components showed minimal movement, suggesting consumers see little change in economic conditions from the prior month. About 46% of respondents cited high prices as a strain on personal finances, with that share remaining above 40% for seven consecutive months. Perceptions varied notably across groups: sentiment improved among large stockholders but declined among households without equities. Similarly, higher-income and college-educated consumers reported gains, while lower-income and less-educated respondents did not. On inflation, one-year expectations dropped sharply to 3.4% from 4.0%, the lowest since January 2025, while longer-term expectations were unchanged at 3.3%.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose by 0.9 points to 57.3 in February 2026, marking a third consecutive monthly increase and beating market expectations of 55, according to preliminary data. Despite the improvement, sentiment remained roughly 20% below its level in January 2025. The gains were driven largely by consumers with significant stock holdings, while sentiment among households without equity exposure stagnated at depressed levels. Modest improvements in perceptions of current personal finances and buying conditions for durable goods were partly offset by a slight deterioration in long-term business expectations. Concerns over the erosion of household finances due to high prices and the risk of job losses remain widespread. On the price front, year-ahead inflation expectations fell sharply to 3.5% from 4.0% in January, the lowest level since January 2025, while longer-term inflation expectations edged up for a second month to 3.4% from 3.3%.