US Consumer Sentiment Close to Record Low

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to a record low of 44.8 in May 2026, revised down from a preliminary 48.2 and marking the third straight monthly decline, as Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions continued to push gasoline prices higher. The cost of living remained the top concern, with 57% of consumers spontaneously citing high prices as eroding their personal finances. Lower-income consumers and those without college degrees posted the steepest declines, as these groups are more sensitive to rising gas and essentials costs. Politically, Independents and Republicans saw sentiment fall to the lowest levels of the current administration, while Democrats’ sentiment showed little change. Critically, consumers grew increasingly worried that inflation would spread beyond fuel prices in the long term. Year-ahead inflation expectations edged up to 4.8% from 4.7%, while long-run expectations climbed to 3.9% from 3.5%.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to a record low of 48.2 in early May 2026, missing market expectations of 49.5 and falling below April’s 49.8. The current conditions component declined about 9% to 47.8, driven by growing concerns over high prices affecting personal finances and buying conditions for major purchases. Meanwhile, the expectations index edged up to 48.5, though real income expectations continued their decline from March. About one-third of consumers spontaneously cited gasoline prices, and roughly 30% mentioned tariffs, underscoring that consumers still feel pressured by rising costs, particularly at the pump. Year-ahead inflation expectations eased slightly to 4.5% from 4.7%, while long-run inflation expectations dipped to 3.4% from 3.5%.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index was revised up to 49.8 in April 2026 from an initial estimate of 47.6, according to final data. Despite the slight improvement, this remains the weakest reading on record, reflecting the heavy toll of the Iran conflict on consumer morale. Sentiment declined across all demographics, regardless of political affiliation, income, age, or education. Expectations for business conditions deteriorated for both the short and long term, nearly matching levels seen a year ago when reciprocal tariffs were introduced. While the two-week ceasefire and a slight dip in gasoline prices helped sentiment recover a fraction of its early-month losses, the conflict’s primary impact on consumers stems from energy and broader price shocks. Inflation expectations surged, with year-ahead expectations jumping to 4.7% from 3.8%, the largest one-month increase since April 2025, while long-term expectations climbed to 3.5%, the highest since October 2025.