US Wages Growth Below Estimates

Average hourly earnings for all employees on US private nonfarm payrolls rose by 12 cents, or 0.3%, over a month to $37.02 in December 2025, after an upwardly revised 0.2% increase in November, matching market forecasts. In December, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees, at $31.76, changed little (+3 cents). Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8% in December, the most in four months, following an upwardly revised 3.6% gain in November and surpassing market estimates of a 3.6% rise.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on US private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 5 cents, or 0.1%, over a month to $36.86 in November 2025, following a 0.4% rise in October and below market forecasts of 0.3%. This was the smallest increase in wages since August 2023. In November, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 11 cents, or 0.3%, to $31.76. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.5% in November, marking the slowest increase since May 2021, down from 3.7% in October.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on US private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents, or 0.2% over a month, to $36.67 in September 2025, slowing from an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in August and just below market forecasts of a 0.3% increase. In September, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 8 cents, or 0.3%, to $31.53. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.8% in September, matching August's revised pace and slightly above analysts' estimates of 3.7%.