News

India Keeps 4% Inflation Target with 2–6% Band Through 2031
India has reaffirmed its inflation-targeting framework, setting a 4% retail inflation goal with a tolerance band of 2–6% for the five years from April 2026 to March 2031. The decision, announced via a gazette notification by the Department of Economic Affairs in consultation with the Reserve Bank of India, maintains the existing policy structure. This marks the second consecutive extension of the framework, first introduced in 2016 and renewed in 2021. Under the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) regime, the six-member Monetary Policy Committee, led by the RBI Governor, is mandated to keep inflation around 4% while allowing room within the defined band. The move signals continuity in India’s monetary policy approach, providing stability and predictability for markets. Recent data showed retail inflation rising to 3.21% in February from 2.74% in the prior month.
Published on 2026-03-26

India Keeps 4% Inflation Target with 2–6% Band Through 2031
India has reaffirmed its inflation-targeting framework, setting a 4% retail inflation goal with a tolerance band of 2–6% for the five years from April 2026 to March 2031. The decision, announced via a gazette notification by the Department of Economic Affairs in consultation with the Reserve Bank of India, maintains the existing policy structure. This marks the second consecutive extension of the framework, first introduced in 2016 and renewed in 2021. Under the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) regime, the six-member Monetary Policy Committee, led by the RBI Governor, is mandated to keep inflation around 4% while allowing room within the defined band. The move signals continuity in India’s monetary policy approach, providing stability and predictability for markets. Recent data showed retail inflation rising to 3.21% in February from 2.74% in the prior month, though it remains within the target range.
Published on 2026-03-26

India Inflation Rises to 11-Month High
The consumer price index in India rose 3.21% annually in February of 2026, picking up from the 2.74% in the previous month and loosely in line with market expectations of 3.1% to mark the fastest pace of inflation in 11 months. The increase reflected the normalization of Indian inflation after a pullback in food prices drove the headline rate to continuously test record lows late last year. The food inflation gague rose to 3.47% from 2.13% last month. Prices also rose firmly for restaurants and accommodation (2.73%), clothing and footwear (2.81%), and paan and tobacco (3.49%). In turn, prices fell for transportation (-0.05%) amid the pullback in oil and gas costs in the wholesale market, which are set to rise in March due to the war in the Persian Gulf. From the previous month, prices inched higher by 0.11%.
Published on 2026-03-12

India Inflation Returns to RBI Tolerance Band
The inflation rate in India rose to 2.75% in January of 2026, firmly above market expectations of 2.4%. The result marked the first inflation rate within the RBI's tolerance band of 2%-4% since August of the previous year. The rate was the first measurement in India's new CPI, which updated the weights of different goods within the index according to the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey from two fiscal years ago. Food inflation, which now accounts for a much smaller portion of the Indian consumer basket, surged to 2.13% from the -2.71% in the previous month, which used the old aggregators for the index. Meanwhile, inflation was elevated for personal care and social protection (19.02%), health (2.19%), and clothing and footwear (2.98%). In turn, transportations inflation was muted at 0.09%. From the previous month, the new consumer price index was at 0.35%.
Published on 2026-02-12

Indian Inflation Rate Rises Less than Expected
The consumer price inflation rate in India rose to 1.33% in December of 2025 from 0.71% in the earlier month, extending the normalization from the record low of 0.25% in October but below the market consensus of 1.5%. Despite the second consecutive increase, the inflation rate remained sharply below the Reserve Bank of India's tolerance limit of 2%-6%. Prices fell less for food (-2.71% vs -3.91% in November), which represent nearly half of the Indian consumer basket. In turn, inflation eased for housing (2.86% vs 2.95%) and fuel and light (1.97% vs 2.32%). From the previous month, the Indian CPI was 0.05% higher to end the year.
Published on 2026-01-12

India Inflation Rebounds Modestly in November
India’s consumer price inflation picked up to 0.71% year-on-year in November 2025, rising from October’s record low of 0.25% and broadly matching the market consensus of 0.7%. Despite the uptick, inflation remained below the Reserve Bank of India’s lower tolerance threshold of 2% for the third straight month, as food prices continued to decline (-3.91% vs. -5.02% in October), driven by softer costs for vegetables, pulses, and spices. Goods inflation also remained subdued following September’s GST rate rationalization. Price pressures eased further in categories such as clothing and footwear (1.49% vs. 1.70%) and miscellaneous services (5.64% vs. 5.71%), while housing inflation was virtually unchanged (2.95% vs. 2.96%). Meanwhile, some categories saw modest acceleration, including pan, tobacco and intoxicants (2.96% vs. 2.87%) and fuel and light (2.32% vs. 1.98%).
Published on 2025-12-12

India Inflation Rebounds Modestly in November
India’s consumer price inflation picked up to 0.71% year-on-year in November 2025, rising from October’s record low of 0.25% and broadly matching the market consensus of 0.7%. Despite the uptick, inflation remained below the Reserve Bank of India’s lower tolerance threshold of 2% for the third straight month, as food prices continued to decline (-3.91% vs. -5.02% in October), driven by softer costs for vegetables, pulses, and spices. Goods inflation also remained subdued following September’s GST rate rationalization. Price pressures eased further in categories such as clothing and footwear (1.49% vs. 1.70%) and miscellaneous goods and services (5.64% vs. 5.71%), while housing inflation was virtually unchanged (2.95% vs. 2.96%). Meanwhile, some categories saw modest acceleration, including pan, tobacco and intoxicants (2.96% vs. 2.87%) and fuel and light (2.32% vs. 1.98%).
Published on 2025-12-12

India Inflation Falls to Record Low
The consumer price inflation rate in India fell to 0.25% in October of 2025 from the downwardly revised 1.44% in the previous month, the lowest on record, and well below the market consensus of a softer slowdown to 0.48%. It was the ninth consecutive month that the inflation rate was below the Reserve Bank of India's 4% target, and the third in the sequence that was below the 2 percentage point lower tolerance bank of 2%, prompting calls for the central bank to deliver more rate cuts. Food prices, which account for nearly half of the weight of the consumer basket, fell by 5.02% annually, the sharpest decline on record, as improved weather conditions supported the production of vegetables, cereals, and pulses. Goods inflation was also tempered by the GST rate rationalization in September. Also, inflation moderated for housing (2.96%) and held below the 2% threshold for housing and light (1.98%). From the previous month, Indian consumer prices rose by 0.15%.
Published on 2025-11-12

India Inflation Falls to Record Low
The consumer price inflation rate in India fell to 0.25% in October of 2025 from the downwardly revised 1.44% in the previous month, the lowest on record, and well below the market consensus of a softer slowdown to 0.48%. It was the ninth consecutive month that the inflation rate was below the Reserve Bank of India's 4% target, and the third in the sequence that was below the 2 percentage point lower tolerance bank of 2%, prompting calls for the central bank to deliver more rate cuts. Food prices, which account for nearly half of the weight of the consumer basket, fell by 5.02% annually, the sharpest decline on record, after the 2.33% drop last month. Also, inflation moderated for housing (2.96%) and held below the 2% threshold for housing and light (1.98%). From the previous month, Indian consumer prices rose by 0.15%.
Published on 2025-11-12

India Inflation Falls to 8-Year Low in September
India’s consumer price inflation eased to 1.54% in September 2025, down from 2.07% in August and below market expectations of 1.7%. This marked the lowest rate since June 2017 and fell below the Reserve Bank of India’s 2% lower tolerance limit under its inflation-targeting framework. Food prices, which account for nearly half of the CPI basket, dropped 2.28%, marking the largest decline since a record 2.65% fall in December 2018. Inflation also moderated for clothing and footwear (2.28% vs. 2.33% in August) and fuel and light (1.98% vs. 2.32%). Conversely, price pressures rose for pan, tobacco, and intoxicants (2.73% vs. 2.49%), housing (3.98% vs. 3.09%), and miscellaneous items (5.35% vs. 5.05%).
Published on 2025-10-13

India Inflation Falls to Record Low in September
India’s consumer price inflation eased to 1.54% in September 2025, down from 2.07% in August and below market expectations of 1.7%. The figure matches a record low last seen in June 2017 and falls beneath the Reserve Bank of India’s 2% lower tolerance threshold under its inflation-targeting framework. Food prices, which account for nearly half of the CPI basket, dropped 2.28%, marking the largest decline since a record 2.65% fall in December 2018. Inflation also moderated for clothing and footwear (2.28% vs. 2.33% in August) and fuel and light (1.98% vs. 2.43%). Conversely, price pressures rose for pan, tobacco, and intoxicants (2.73% vs. 2.49%), housing (3.98% vs. 3.17%), and miscellaneous items (5.35% vs. 5.05%).
Published on 2025-10-13

India Inflation Falls to Record Low in September
India’s consumer price inflation eased to 1.54% in September 2025, down from 2.07% in August and below market expectations of 1.7%. The figure matches a record low last seen in June 2017 and falls beneath the Reserve Bank of India’s 2% lower tolerance threshold under its inflation-targeting framework. Food prices, which account for nearly half of the CPI basket, dropped 2.28%, marking the largest decline since a record 2.65% fall in December 2018. Inflation also moderated for clothing and footwear (2.28% vs. 2.33% in August) and fuel and light (1.98% vs. 2.32%). Conversely, price pressures rose for pan, tobacco, and intoxicants (2.73% vs. 2.49%), housing (3.98% vs. 3.09%), and miscellaneous items (5.35% vs. 5.05%).
Published on 2025-10-13

India Inflation Rate Rises in August
India’s consumer price inflation accelerated to 2.07% in August 2025, up from an upwardly revised 1.61% in July, broadly matching market expectations. This marked the first monthly increase in inflation in ten months, though it remained close to the Reserve Bank of India’s lower tolerance threshold of 2% under its inflation-targeting framework. Food prices, which make up nearly half of the CPI basket, fell 0.69%, moderating from a 1.76% decline in July. Inflation rose for pan, tobacco, and intoxicants (2.49% vs. 2.45%) and miscellaneous items (5.05% vs. 5.01%), while costs increased at a slower pace for clothing and footwear (2.33% vs. 2.50%), housing (3.09% vs. 3.17%), and fuel and light (2.43% vs. 2.67%).
Published on 2025-09-12

India Inflation Rate Rises in August
India’s consumer price inflation accelerated to 2.07% in August 2025, up from an upwardly revised 1.61% in July, broadly matching market expectations. This marked the first monthly increase in inflation in ten months, though it remained close to the Reserve Bank of India’s lower tolerance threshold of 2% under its inflation-targeting framework. Food prices, which make up nearly half of the CPI basket, fell 0.69%, moderating from a 1.76% decline in July.
Published on 2025-09-12

India Inflation Rate Falls Below RBI Tolerance Band
The annual consumer price inflation rate in India fell to 1.55% in July of 2025 from 2.1% in the previous month, firmly below the market consensus of a 1.76%, to mark the ninth consecutive decrease in the inflation rate and only 1 basis point away from the series-low in June of 2017. It was the first time that price growth fell below the Reserve Bank of India's wide tolerance band of 2%-6% since 2019, reinforcing the view that the central bank may deliver another interest rate cut this year. The slowdown was owed to a second drop in prices of food (-1.76% vs 1.06% in June) amid a plunge in costs of vegetables (-20.69% vs -19%). In the meantime, inflation also slowed for transport and communication (2.12% vs 3.9%) and remained relatively resilient for housing (3.17% vs 3.24%). From the previous month, consumer prices were 0.9% higher.
Published on 2025-08-12

India Inflation Rate Falls to 2019-Lows
India’s consumer price inflation eased for the eighth straight month, falling to 2.1% in June 2025, the lowest level since January 2019, down from 2.82% in May and below market expectations of 2.5%. The sharp decline was largely driven by a 1.06% drop in food prices, marking the first annual decrease since early 2019. Vegetable prices plunged 19%, while pulses fell 11.76%. Prices for spices dropped 3.03%, and meat and fish were down 1.62%. Inflation in the fuel and light category also moderated to 2.55% from 2.78% in the previous month. However, price pressures remained persistent or slightly increased in other sectors: housing inflation rose to 3.24% (from 3.16%), education to 4.37% (from 4.12%), health to 4.43% (from 4.34%), and transport and communication to 3.9% (from 3.85%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.62% compared to May.
Published on 2025-07-14

India’s Inflation Falls to 6-Year Low
India’s consumer price inflation eased to 2.82% in May 2025, down from 3.16% in April and below market expectations of 3%. This marked the lowest reading since February 2019, bringing inflation close to the Reserve Bank of India’s lower tolerance threshold of 2% under its inflation-targeting framework. Food inflation—which accounts for nearly half of the CPI basket—fell sharply to 0.99%, the lowest level since October 2021, driven by easing price pressures in pulses and products, vegetables, fruits, cereals, sugar and confectionery, and eggs. Meanwhile, fuel and light inflation also moderated (2.78% vs. 2.92% in April). In contrast, inflation remained steady or edged higher in categories such as housing (3.16% vs. 3.06%), education (4.12% vs. 4.13%), health (4.34% vs. 4.25%), and transport and communication (3.85% vs. 3.67%).
Published on 2025-06-12

India Inflation Rate Falls to Near 6-Year Low
The annual inflation rate in India fell to 3.16% in April of 2025, the lowest since July of 2019, from 3.34% in the previous month, and firmly below market expectations of 3.3%. As a result, the inflation rate further below the Reserve Bank of India's 4% midpoint target, strengthening the case for additional rate cuts by the central bank. Food prices, which accounts for nearly half of the consumer price basket, rose only 1.78%, the least sinnce October 2021, and down from 2.69% in March. In turn, inflation was loosely unchanged for housing (3.00% vs 3.03%) and picked up sharply for fuel and light (2.92% vs 1.48%) as base effects for the latter offset lower energy costs in the wholesale market. From the previous month, consumer prices rose by 0.31%, rebounding from the 0.26% drop in the previous month to halt five consecutive declines in the CPI.
Published on 2025-05-13

Indian Inflation Falls to Over 5-Year Low
India's annual inflation rate fell to 3.34% in March of 2025 from the 3.61% in the previous month, well below market expectations that it would remain relatively unchanged, to mark a fifth consecutive slowdown to the lowest inflation rate since August 2019. The drop lowered the inflation rate deeper below the Reserve Bank of India's 4% mid-point target. Inflation fell to a near four-year low for food (2.69% vs 3.75% in February), which accounts for nearly half of the Indian price basket, amid deflationary pressure for eggs, spices, vegetables, and pulses. This was enough to offset a rebound in prices of fuel and light (1.48% vs -1.33%) and faster inflation for housing (3.03% vs 2.91%). From the previous month, consumer prices fell by 0.26%, a fifth consecutive drop.
Published on 2025-04-15

India Inflation Falls More than Expected
India’s annual inflation rate dropped to 3.62% in February 2025, down from a revised 4.26% in the previous month, significantly undershooting market expectations of a 4% decline. This marked the slowest rise in consumer prices since July of the previous year and the first time in six months that inflation fell below the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% mid-point target. The decline aligns with the RBI’s decision to initiate the country’s rate-cutting cycle and implement a series of liquidity-boosting measures for state banks. Inflation fell sharply for food (3.75% vs 5.97% in January), which accounts for nearly half of the Indian price basket, amid deflationary pressure for eggs, spices, vegetables, and pulses. Also, prices fell for fuel and light (-1.33%) and remained soft for housing (2.91%), although inflation was more elevated for miscellaneous goods (4.78%). Prices fell by 0.47% from the previous month, extending the revised 1% drop in January, the 4th consecutive period of deflation.
Published on 2025-03-12